Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Selective Insurance Group (SIGI)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-05
$101.77-1.39%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
8.74 → 8.97 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SIGI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividends and share buybacks | It returns cash with dividends and buybacks. | Intact | dividends or buybacks fall below 2026-Q1 levels | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
SIGI is a property and casualty insurer with a quality-led, execution-focused multi-year view. The thesis is intact, supported by robust earnings quality, stable management, and strong recent performance, though underwriting discipline has limited premium growth.
The valuation model labels SIGI cheap versus peers, but its peer-relative premium is close to parity and the expectations gap is small. The priced-in assessment is justified, with low fragility; valuation has risen recently, so the evidence does not point to a large cushion from expectations.
Near term, the latest earnings beats and improved underwriting support the operating picture, with the combined ratio improving to 96.8% in Q3. Targeted underwriting actions also constrained premium growth, while investment income increased; recent earnings surprises are trending down despite a low stated miss risk.
Over the multi-year view, progress depends on sustaining underwriting discipline without allowing premium growth to weaken too much. Near term, a guidance reversal after the recent increase would damage credibility, while lower interest rates could weigh on the sector; continued strength from insurance peers would be a supportive signal.
SIGI’s 1-3 year thesis remains intact, but execution must balance underwriting profitability with growth, and interest-rate sensitivity remains a meaningful risk. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Selective Insurance Group's published investment case. The stated target is <=93.8% combined ratio. |
| Broken |
| combined ratio rises above 96% in 2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net income grows year-over-year | A primary condition in Selective Insurance Group's published investment case. The stated target is net income grows at least 5% YoY. | Broken | net income declines year-over-year in 2026 | Net income: $128.652M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: net income grows at least 5% YoY. Target and observation units differ. Oct 23, 2026128,652,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net premiums written grow about 4% year-over-year | Selective Insurance grows premiums about 4% yearly. | Intact | YoY net premiums growth falls below 2% in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$8.87 → $8.97 · observed estimates
$5.65B → $4.57B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $8.87 | $5,651,293,220 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $8.87 | $5,651,293,220 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $8.87 | $5,651,293,220 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $8.87 | $5,536,434,020 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $8.87 | $5,536,434,020 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $8.80 | $5,536,434,020 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $8.76 | $4,906,574,717 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $8.76 | $4,818,945,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $8.76 | $4,818,945,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $8.81 | $5,480,885,350 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $8.81 | $5,480,885,350 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $8.76 | $4,818,945,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $8.76 | $4,818,945,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $8.76 | $4,818,945,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $8.78 | $5,452,618,680 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $8.78 | $5,452,618,680 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $8.78 | $5,452,618,680 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $8.78 | $5,452,618,680 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $8.76 | $4,818,945,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $8.76 | $4,818,945,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $8.76 | $4,818,945,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $8.76 | $4,818,945,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $8.76 | $4,818,945,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $8.76 | $4,818,945,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $8.76 | $4,818,945,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $8.73 | $4,782,895,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $8.73 | $4,782,895,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $8.73 | $4,782,895,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $8.73 | $4,782,895,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $8.73 | $4,782,895,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $8.73 | $4,782,895,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $8.73 | $4,782,895,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $8.73 | $4,782,895,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $8.73 | $4,782,895,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $8.73 | $4,782,895,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $8.73 | $4,782,895,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $8.73 | $4,782,895,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $8.73 | $4,782,895,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $8.73 | $4,782,895,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $8.73 | $4,782,895,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $8.73 | $4,782,895,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $8.73 | $4,782,895,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $8.73 | $4,782,895,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $8.73 | $4,782,895,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $8.73 | $4,782,895,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $8.73 | $4,782,895,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $8.73 | $4,782,895,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $8.73 | $4,782,895,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $8.73 | $4,782,895,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $8.73 | $4,782,895,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $8.73 | $4,782,895,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $8.73 | $4,782,895,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $8.73 | $4,782,895,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $8.73 | $4,782,895,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $8.73 | $4,782,895,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $8.73 | $4,782,895,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $8.73 | $4,782,895,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $8.73 | $4,782,895,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $8.73 | $4,782,895,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $8.73 | $4,782,895,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $8.73 | $4,782,895,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $8.73 | $4,782,895,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $8.73 | $4,782,895,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $8.73 | $4,782,895,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $8.73 | $4,782,895,833 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $8.72 | $4,760,164,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $8.72 | $4,760,164,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $8.72 | $4,760,164,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $8.73 | $4,760,159,617 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $8.73 | $4,760,159,617 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $8.73 | $4,760,159,617 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $8.73 | $4,760,159,617 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $8.74 | $4,760,159,617 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $8.74 | $4,760,159,617 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $8.74 | $4,760,159,617 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $8.74 | $4,760,159,617 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $8.74 | $4,760,159,617 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $8.74 | $4,760,159,617 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $8.74 | $4,760,159,617 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $8.71 | $4,760,159,617 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $8.71 | $4,760,159,617 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $8.71 | $4,760,159,617 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $8.71 | $4,760,159,617 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $8.71 | $4,760,159,617 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $8.71 | $4,760,159,617 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $8.71 | $4,760,159,617 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $8.71 | $4,760,159,617 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $8.71 | $4,760,164,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $8.71 | $4,760,164,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $8.71 | $4,760,164,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $8.86 | $4,591,127,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $8.86 | $4,591,127,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $8.86 | $4,591,127,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $8.86 | $4,591,127,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $8.91 | $4,591,127,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $8.91 | $4,591,127,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $8.91 | $4,591,127,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $8.97 | $4,573,242,883 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $8.97 | $4,573,242,883 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $8.97 | $4,573,242,883 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $8.97 | $4,573,242,883 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $8.97 | $4,573,242,883 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-05 | $8.97 | $4,573,242,883 | 6 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.