Selective Insurance Group (SIGI)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$92.19-1.08%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SIGI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -13.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -9.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers
SIGI — President transition
Dated 2026-05-14
Executive Vice President and Chief Investment Officer — Joseph O. Eppers: Mr. Eppers retired and was succeeded by Vaibhav Kalia as Interim Chief Investment Officer.
Why it matters: If operating income is less than $1.95, it shows profit decline. This may change how investors feel and affect growth.
Worry ifQ3 operating income per share falls below $1.95.
Less concerning ifOperating income per share meets or exceeds $1.95.
Why it matters: News on share buyback programs may show management's trust in the company's future.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of an increase in the share repurchase program beyond $200 million.
Worry ifNo updates or a reduction in the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: Strong net income growth shows good management. It also means more profit.
Supportive ifQ2 net income available to common stockholders grows more than 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 net income growth is less than or equal to 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect the company. Updates will explain future goals.
Watch forAnnouncement of a clear strategic plan from the new president.
Also watch forNo clear strategy or direction provided by the new president.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$104 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $227 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,777 loss on $10,000 · 17.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More investment income boosts profits. It also shows strong management of capital.
Supportive ifAfter-tax net investment income exceeds $150 million for Q3 2026.
Worry ifAfter-tax net investment income falls below $150 million for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Operating income growth shows good cost control. Staying above 15% shows strong efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating income growth was above 15% compared to last year.
Worry ifOperating income growth was below 15% compared to last year.
Why it matters: A drop in ROE shows weaker profits. This might lower investor confidence.
Worry ifReturn on equity falls below 12% in Q3.
Less concerning ifReturn on equity remains at 12% or higher in Q3.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key for Selective Insurance. A drop below 12% signals a slowdown.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 12% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth remains at or above 12% year over year.
Why it matters: Slower growth in net premiums written may show problems in the market.
Worry ifNet premiums written growth reported below 2% year over year.
Less concerning ifNet premiums written growth reported above 4% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in earnings per share may show lower profits. This can hurt investor trust.
Worry ifQ2 earnings per share were below $1.58. This indicates profits are declining.
Less concerning ifQ2 earnings per share were above $1.58. This shows profits are stable or improving.
Why it matters: A drop in renewal prices shows more competition. This puts pressure on profit margins.
Worry ifAverage renewal pure price was below 7%.
Less concerning ifAverage renewal pure price was above 8%.
Why it matters: Higher reinsurance costs can hurt profit and stability.
Worry ifReinsurance costs are going up a lot in the next quarters.
Less concerning ifReinsurance costs stay the same or go down in the next quarters.
Why it matters: A bigger drop shows problems with revenue growth and competition.
Worry ifNet premiums written decline more than 3% year over year in Q3.
Less concerning ifNet premiums written increase or decline less than 3% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: A higher combined ratio means worse underwriting profits. This could hurt future earnings.
Worry ifCombined ratio exceeds 97.5% in Q3.
Less concerning ifCombined ratio stays below 97.5% in Q3.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, it may show weak investment performance. This can hurt overall profits.
Worry ifNet investment income falls below $110 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifNet investment income remains above $110 million in Q3.
Why it matters: If it falls below this level, it may show trouble keeping profits. This could lower investor confidence.
Worry ifOperating ROE falls below 12% in Q3.
Less concerning ifOperating ROE remains at or above 12% in Q3.