Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Sirius XM Holdings Inc (SIRI)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesBroadcastingSnapshot 2026-11-05
$33.22-0.54%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesBroadcastingSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.29 → 3.30 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SIRI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Free cash flow at least $1.35 billion in FY26 | Free cash flow stays strong near $1.35 billion. | Intact | Free cash flow falls below $1.0 billion in FY26 | Free cash flow: $291M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.35 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 2026291,000,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a value-oriented media business with a recovery element, rather than a clear durable-growth story. The long-term thesis is intact, but confidence is medium and execution remains mixed.
SIRI is assessed as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting the market’s assumptions remain cautious. The valuation is marked as justified, with low fragility rather than a setup built on both high expectations and weak execution.
Near term, the latest results support momentum: adjusted EBITDA rose 3% year over year, and self-pay net additions improved, though they remained modest. Advertising revenue grew only 1%, operating income declined, and the sector backdrop is a headwind; a guidance reversal after the recent raise would also damage credibility.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on whether subscriber stabilization continues and advertising growth improves without weakening cost control. A guidance cut after the recent raise is the key downside scenario, while easier rates or stronger results from sector peers could provide a more supportive backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, SIRI’s case rests on sustaining recent operating momentum and proving that modest subscriber and advertising progress can support durable results. Its low peer-relative valuation offers context, but the execution record and sector headwind remain important limits. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Sirius XM Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= $8.5 billion. |
| Intact |
| Revenue falls below $8.0 billion in FY26 |
Revenue: $2.153B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $8.5 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 20262,153,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
PE ratio remains below 15 | A supporting condition in Sirius XM Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is <= 15 PE. | Intact | PE rises above 20 without earnings growth | Valuation inputs unavailable A completed valuation measurement is required. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.37 → $3.30 · observed estimates
$8.68B → $8.72B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.37 | $8,682,681,910 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.37 | $8,682,681,910 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.37 | $8,682,681,910 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.37 | $8,682,681,910 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.37 | $8,682,681,910 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.37 | $8,682,681,910 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.41 | $8,688,507,768 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.31 | $8,691,022,343 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.31 | $8,691,022,343 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.30 | $8,695,394,610 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.26 | $8,692,059,530 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.26 | $8,692,059,530 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.29 | $8,687,957,574 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.27 | $8,696,841,000 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.26 | $8,697,571,710 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.29 | $8,687,957,574 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.29 | $8,687,957,574 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.26 | $8,697,571,710 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.29 | $8,687,957,574 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.29 | $8,687,957,574 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.29 | $8,687,957,574 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.29 | $8,687,957,574 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.29 | $8,687,957,574 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.29 | $8,687,957,574 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.29 | $8,687,957,574 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.23 | $8,737,666,824 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.23 | $8,737,666,824 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.23 | $8,737,666,824 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.24 | $8,738,871,965 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.24 | $8,738,871,965 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.24 | $8,738,871,965 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.24 | $8,738,871,965 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.24 | $8,738,871,965 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.24 | $8,738,871,965 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.24 | $8,738,871,965 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.24 | $8,738,871,965 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.24 | $8,738,871,965 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.24 | $8,738,871,965 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.24 | $8,738,871,965 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.25 | $8,770,774,535 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.25 | $8,770,774,535 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.25 | $8,770,774,535 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.25 | $8,770,774,535 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.25 | $8,770,774,535 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.25 | $8,770,774,535 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.25 | $8,770,774,535 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.25 | $8,770,774,535 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.25 | $8,770,774,535 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.25 | $8,770,774,535 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.25 | $8,770,774,535 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.25 | $8,770,774,535 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.25 | $8,770,774,535 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.25 | $8,770,774,535 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.25 | $8,770,774,535 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.25 | $8,770,774,535 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.25 | $8,770,774,535 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.29 | $8,713,680,268 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.29 | $8,713,680,268 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.29 | $8,713,680,268 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.29 | $8,713,680,268 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.29 | $8,713,680,268 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.29 | $8,713,680,268 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.29 | $8,713,680,268 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.29 | $8,713,680,268 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.29 | $8,713,680,268 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.29 | $8,713,680,268 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.29 | $8,713,680,268 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.29 | $8,713,680,268 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.29 | $8,715,757,191 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.29 | $8,715,757,191 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.29 | $8,715,757,191 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.29 | $8,715,757,191 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.29 | $8,715,757,191 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.29 | $8,715,757,191 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.29 | $8,715,757,191 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.29 | $8,715,757,191 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.29 | $8,715,757,191 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.29 | $8,715,757,191 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.29 | $8,715,757,191 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.29 | $8,715,757,191 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.30 | $8,717,218,730 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.30 | $8,717,218,730 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.30 | $8,713,987,960 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.30 | $8,713,987,960 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.30 | $8,713,987,960 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.30 | $8,713,987,960 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.30 | $8,713,987,960 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.30 | $8,713,987,960 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.30 | $8,713,987,960 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.30 | $8,713,987,960 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.30 | $8,713,987,960 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.30 | $8,713,987,960 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.30 | $8,713,987,960 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.30 | $8,713,987,960 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.30 | $8,713,987,960 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.30 | $8,714,757,191 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.33 | $8,707,790,798 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.33 | $8,705,645,606 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.33 | $8,705,645,606 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.33 | $8,705,645,606 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.32 | $8,730,548,799 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.30 | $8,724,471,875 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-11-05 | $3.30 | $8,724,471,875 | 11 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 6 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.