Sirius XM Holdings Inc (SIRI)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesBroadcastingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$28.99-2.62%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesBroadcastingSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SIRI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -35.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 37.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and its industry peers have been missing lately. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers
SIRI — COO transition
Dated 2026-07-30
Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer — Wayne D. Thorsen: Mr. Thorsen ceased serving as an employee of the Company without a named successor.
Why it matters: A clear plan for leadership is key for stability after the COO leaves.
Worry ifAnnouncement of a new COO or interim leadership.
Less concerning ifNo news about the COO's replacement after three months.
Why it matters: Better revenue growth means SiriusXM is attracting and keeping more subscribers.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 1% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is less than or equal to 1% year-over-year.
Why it matters: A rise in revenue guidance shows strong demand and good strategy.
Supportive if2026 revenue guidance is now above $8.525 billion.
Worry ifGuidance remains unchanged or is lowered from $8.525 billion.
Why it matters: A positive change in sector revenue growth could signal a recovery. It may improve investor sentiment towards Sirius XM.
Watch forSector revenue growth shows a positive trend in the next quarterly report.
Also watch forSector revenue growth continues to decline in the next quarterly report.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$102 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $281 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,747 loss on $10,000 · 17.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Stable leadership helps keep focus. It builds trust with investors.
Worry ifNo new executive changes are expected in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifMore executives leave or change jobs. This can be a warning sign.
Why it matters: More subscribers help keep current customers. They also help attract new ones.
Supportive ifSelf-pay net additions reported as positive or less than -100,000.
Worry ifSelf-pay net additions reported worse than -111,000.
Why it matters: A low churn rate indicates strong customer retention, which is crucial for long-term growth.
Supportive ifChurn rate for Q3 remains below 1.4%.
Worry ifChurn rate for Q3 rises above 1.4%.
Why it matters: Higher adjusted EBITDA growth means more profit. It also shows better operations.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA growth exceeds 3% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA growth falls below 3% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Improving self-pay net additions would show that SiriusXM is gaining more subscribers, which is key for growth.
Supportive ifSelf-pay net additions for Q3 exceed 22,000.
Worry ifSelf-pay net additions fall below 22,000.
Why it matters: Strong growth in advertising revenue shows good use of content and partnerships.
Supportive ifAdvertising revenue grew more than 5% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAdvertising revenue growth is less than 3% compared to last year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A new COO could change how SiriusXM runs its operations.
Watch forAnnouncement of a new COO with a strong track record in media or technology.
Also watch forNo news on a new leader means uncertainty in management.
Why it matters: Higher free cash flow shows good financial health and efficiency.
Supportive ifQ3 free cash flow exceeds $593 million, showing strong cash generation.
Worry ifFree cash flow falls below $593 million, suggesting potential cash flow issues.