Sirius XM Holdings Inc (SIRI)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesBroadcastingSnapshot 2026-11-05
$33.22-0.54%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesBroadcastingSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SIRI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -20.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 2 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SIRI — COO transition
Dated 2026-07-30
Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer — Wayne D. Thorsen: Mr. Thorsen ceased serving as an employee of the Company without a named successor.
Why it matters: Management tied faster share repurchases to lower satellite spending and a stronger cash flow base. The pace will test that plan.
Supportive ifQuarterly share repurchases in 2027 top the $33 million reported for Q3 2026.
Worry ifQuarterly share repurchases in 2027 stay at or below $33 million. Or the company cites a delay in faster repurchases.
Why it matters: The raised 2026 free cash flow goal is $1.375 billion. Q3 cash flow rose partly due to lower spending and working capital, which may not repeat.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 free cash flow falls below $1.375 billion.
Less concerning ifFull-year 2026 free cash flow reaches or exceeds $1.375 billion.
Why it matters: YouTube Audio expands SiriusXM Media's reach. Q3 Pandora and Off-Platform ad sales grew just 1%, so stronger growth would show the deal is gaining value.
Supportive ifPandora and Off-Platform ad sales grow more than 1% year over year. Results cite YouTube Audio campaigns.
Worry ifAd sales stay at or below 1% growth, or results cite no added lift from YouTube Audio.
Why it matters: Q3 net additions reached 5,000, while churn fell to 1.5%. More gains would support the subscriber recovery story.
Supportive ifQ4 self-pay net additions are above zero and monthly churn is 1.5% or lower.
Worry ifQ4 self-pay net additions turn negative, or monthly churn rises above 1.5%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$98 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $292 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,133 loss on $10,000 · 21.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Podcast and programmatic ads supported growth, but softer music ads and fewer listening hours weighed on results. A drop would signal weaker ad demand.
Worry ifPandora and Off-Platform ad sales fall year over year from Q3's $419 million.
Less concerning ifPandora and Off-Platform ad sales rise year over year from Q3's $419 million.