SiteOne Landscape Supply Inc (SITE)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$100.58+2.14%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Revenue growth of about 6.9% in next 12 months: Rev est -0.1% vs 6.9% target.
SiteOne aims for adjusted EBITDA near $440 million in 2026. Sales should grow about 6.9% next year. The company has strong cash flow and a solid balance sheet. Management is focused on handling debt and executive changes.
SiteOne missed earnings in Q1 2026 and lost $26.6 million. The stock is down 25.7% from its high. Profit targets may be too optimistic given recent results. Executive changes could disrupt operations.
The price is about 11% below our fair value near $119. Analysts expect about 7% revenue growth. Our fair value is 23% below the Street median, showing caution versus the Street.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $425 million in FY 2026
Continue executing commercial and operational initiatives to drive Adjusted EBITDA growth and margin expansion in fiscal year 2026.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround play in the industrial sector. SITE is currently loss-making but has stable management and is focused on achieving specific financial targets over the next few years.
The market appears to have priced in a low expectations gap, suggesting that investors are not overly optimistic about immediate performance. Valuation is considered cheap compared to peers, indicating that the stock may be undervalued relative to its industry.
Management is on track to achieve its Adjusted EBITDA target for fiscal year 2026, although recent financial performance has been neutral. There is a moderate risk due to a history of earnings misses, which could impact future results.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like GWW, FAST, and FERG, as their results could influence SITE's trajectory. Additionally, any cuts to guidance in upcoming calls could negatively impact investor sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings miss has put pressure on the thesis. Revenue growth expectations are now about 6.9% for the next 12 months. This is below the target of 6.9%. The company is under pressure as sector trends are also working against it.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management consistently expects Adjusted EBITDA for fiscal year 2026 in the range of $425 million to $455 million. Adjusted EBITDA grew 5% year-over-year in 2026-Q2 to $237.2 million, with margin stable at 15.5%. The trajectory shows delivering progress toward the full-year Adjusted EBITDA guidance.
“We continue to expect Adjusted EBITDA for fiscal year 2026 to be in the range of $425 million to $455 million.”
“We continue to expect Adjusted EBITDA for fiscal year 2026 to be in the range of $425 million to $455 million.”
“We expect Adjusted EBITDA for fiscal year 2026 to be in the range of $425 million to $455 million.”
Breaks if: Material worsening of credit agreements or capital misuse
Maintain disciplined capital allocation including share repurchases and managing debt levels prudently.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 3 quarters. Management repurchased $20 million in 2026-Q1 and nearly $104 million in 2026-Q2, demonstrating active capital return. Net debt decreased from $584.5 million in 2026-Q1 to $555.6 million in 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows delivering disciplined capital allocation and managing financial obligations.
“We repurchased nearly $104 million of shares during the quarter reflecting strength of our balance sheet.”
“Repurchased $20.0 million of shares under the share repurchase authorization.”
Breaks if: Executive changes cause operational or strategic setbacks
Ensure smooth leadership changes with clear succession plans to maintain strategic continuity.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Management announced the retirement of Executive Vice President Scott Salmon with a clear successor identified. No financial metrics directly relate to this priority, but the company emphasizes leadership continuity.
“Executive Vice President, Strategy and Development Scott Salmon is retiring with a clear successor in place.”
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below 6.9% next year
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SITE's performance will depend on both management execution and broader sector trends. Not investment advice.