SiteOne Landscape Supply Inc (SITE)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$100.58+2.14%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SITE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -4.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 18 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SITE — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-29
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 29, 2026, SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the second quarter ended June 28, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1.
Why it matters: Organic Daily Sales growth impacts overall revenue and reflects market demand. It is crucial for long-term health.
Watch forOrganic Daily Sales growth is now positive. This shows demand is recovering.
Also watch forOrganic Daily Sales continue to decline. This shows ongoing market weakness.
Why it matters: Higher net debt could signal financial strain and impact future growth plans.
Worry ifNet debt reported above $600 million.
Less concerning ifNet debt reported below $555 million.
Why it matters: Meeting this target would show progress toward the full-year Adjusted EBITDA goal of $425M-$455M.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA was $106 million or more.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA was less than $106 million.
Why it matters: A decrease shows good cost control and improvements in tough markets.
Supportive ifSG&A as a percentage of Net Sales reported below 24.2%.
Worry ifSG&A as a percentage of Net Sales reported above 24.2%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$153 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $357 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,255 loss on $10,000 · 42.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Weather greatly affects sales volume. Knowing this helps predict future performance.
Watch forSales volume rises in Q2 2026 because of good weather.
Also watch forSales volume keeps falling in Q2 2026 due to bad weather.
Why it matters: SG&A costs impact profits. A rise could mean inefficiencies or market problems.
Worry ifSG&A as a percentage of Net Sales goes down. This shows better cost management.
Less concerning ifSG&A as a percentage of Net Sales rises above 37.2%. This signals inefficiencies.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift for SiteOne's performance.
Supportive ifThree-year revenue growth in the industrials sector rises above 7%.
Worry ifThree-year revenue growth stays below 5%.
Why it matters: Flat or better sales growth shows strength in a tough market. It shows good pricing and demand management.
Supportive ifQ3 organic daily sales growth reported at flat or greater compared to prior year.
Worry ifQ3 organic daily sales growth reported worse than -1%.
Why it matters: Ongoing share buybacks show that management believes in the company's value and health.
Supportive ifShare repurchases in Q3 were above $10 million.
Worry ifNo share repurchases reported in Q3.
Why it matters: Staying in this range shows management can handle market challenges and carry out plans.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA reported in the range of $425 million to $455 million for FY 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was below $425 million for FY 2026.