Skillz Inc (SKLZ)
NYSECommunication ServicesElectronic Gaming & MultimediaSnapshot 2026-09-04
$8.84+6.25%
Close 2026-06-18 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesElectronic Gaming & MultimediaSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SKLZ
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -75.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 14.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 90.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SKLZ — litigation filed
Dated 2026-07-28
Regulation FD Disclosure. On July 27, 2026, Judge Denise Cote of the United States District Court of the Southern District of New York entered an Opinion and Order stating that it will enter judgment against Papaya Gaming (“Papaya”) for $719 million in disgorgement of unjust profits to Firy Inc.’s (the “Company”) wholly owned subsidiary, Skillz Platform Inc., plus an award of certain attorney’s fees and costs. The Opinion and Order was issued in connection with the a false advertising lawsuit…
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows better financial performance. It also shows higher market demand.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported above $31 million, showing over 33% growth from Q2 2025.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is below 33% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Good management during changes can lead to better choices. This can strengthen company results.
Supportive ifThe new CFO joins the company without causing major issues.
Worry ifLeadership changes cause problems or poor decisions.
Why it matters: Lower legal costs would help adjusted EBITDA. This would improve the company's financial health.
Supportive ifLitigation costs fall below $10 million next quarter.
Worry ifLitigation costs stay above $15 million. This shows ongoing financial stress.
Why it matters: Stable leaders can boost investor trust. It helps keep focus on operations.
Supportive ifNo more executive changes in the next quarter.
Worry ifAnother key executive may leave in the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$369 on $10,000 · ±3.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $768 loss on $10,000 · 7.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,492 loss on $10,000 · 74.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A big drop in revenue shows ongoing problems with money management.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported below $27.6M, which is a 5% decline from Q2 2025.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue stabilizes or grows year over year.
Why it matters: The court's decision could lead to a significant cash inflow for Skillz. This would help improve financial stability and support growth plans.
Supportive ifThe court rules in favor of Skillz, confirming the $420 million award or more.
Worry ifThe court cuts or throws out the award. This limits what can be recovered.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth would signal a turnaround in Skillz's financial performance. This is crucial for long-term viability.
Supportive ifSkillz reports positive revenue growth in the next two quarters.
Worry ifRevenue continues to decline year over year.
Why it matters: Better adjusted EBITDA means more efficiency. It also shows better cost control.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA improves each quarter. This shows better control of costs.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA gets worse or stays the same compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: How well the CFO transition goes could affect Skillz's financial future.
Watch forThe new CFO uses plans that help financial performance and boost investor trust.
Also watch forThe change creates confusion. It causes problems in the financial plan.
Why it matters: A change in the sector's lifecycle could benefit Skillz's growth prospects.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth turns positive after being in a declining phase.
Worry ifSector continues to show negative revenue growth.