Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (SKWD)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$63.86+2.64%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.53 → 5.52 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SKWD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Successful integration of Apollo acquisition | A supporting condition in Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Complete integration and realize synergies. | Intact | Acquisition fails to complete or integration falters | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
SKWD is a growth-oriented insurer with strong recent performance and robust earnings quality. Its long-term thesis is intact, though confidence has eased from high to medium and management is rated neutral.
Valuation is tagged as justified and aligned with the business outlook, with a 1.2 premium versus peers. The expectations gap is negative, but model confidence is low, so the valuation signal is uncertain; fragility is also low.
Near term, management is delivering on premium growth and keeping the combined ratio, which compares claims and expenses with premiums, at its 89.5% goal. The company also began executing on an expanded repurchase authorization, while a CFO transition and a history of a deep earnings miss remain watch points.
The multi-year view depends on continued premium growth and disciplined underwriting. Near term, a guidance cut or falling rates would be unfavorable, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector peers could support sector momentum.
For the next 1 to 3 years, SKWD’s thesis rests on sustaining growth without weakening underwriting, with valuation expectations and rate sensitivity tempering an otherwise intact setup. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Maintain manageable debt and continue buybacks. |
| Intact |
| Debt or buybacks materially harm financial stability |
Buyback authorization $100M vs qualitative target Board expanded share repurchase authorization from $50M to $100M on July 15, 2026. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
EPS of at least $1.25 next year | Profit per share is expected to rise to $1.25 next year. | Intact | EPS falls below $1.25 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $1.07 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=1.25 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 20261.07 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Annual revenue growth of about 22% | A primary condition in Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=21.6% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 21.6% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 53.03% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=21.6% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 202653.025448 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.48 → $5.52 · observed estimates
$2.97B → $2.98B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.48 | $2,967,041,629 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.48 | $2,097,686,200 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.48 | $2,097,686,200 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.48 | $2,097,686,200 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.48 | $2,097,686,200 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.48 | $2,097,686,200 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.48 | $2,967,041,629 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.48 | $2,967,041,629 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.48 | $2,967,041,629 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.48 | $2,097,686,200 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.48 | $2,967,041,629 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.48 | $2,097,686,200 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.48 | $2,967,041,629 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.48 | $2,967,041,629 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.52 | $2,092,477,200 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.52 | $2,092,477,200 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.52 | $2,092,477,200 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.52 | $2,896,726,494 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.53 | $2,101,025,290 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.52 | $2,896,726,494 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.52 | $2,896,726,494 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.52 | $2,896,726,494 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.52 | $2,896,726,494 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.52 | $2,896,726,494 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.52 | $2,896,726,494 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.53 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.52 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.52 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.52 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.52 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.52 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.52 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.52 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.52 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.52 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.52 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.52 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.52 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.52 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.52 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.52 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.52 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.52 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.52 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.52 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.52 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.52 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.52 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.52 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.52 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.52 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.52 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.52 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.52 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.52 | $2,983,535,357 | 7 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.