Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (SKWD)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$57.34-1.29%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SKWD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -39.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 50.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 90.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SKWD — CFO transition
Dated 2026-08-20
CFO — Mark Haushill: The CFO is retiring with a planned transition to a Senior Advisor role and a named internal successor (Deputy CFO) has been appointed, indicating an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: A drop in ROE may show less profit and hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifAnnualized ROE drops below 17% for Q3.
Less concerning ifAnnualized ROE remains at or above 20% for Q3.
Why it matters: The CFO change might impact financial strategy and execution. Watching this can show how well the company adapts.
Watch forQ4 results show improved financial metrics under the new CFO.
Also watch forQ4 results show a decline in financial metrics compared to Q3.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows strong growth and effective market strategy. It reflects the company's ability to expand its business.
Supportive ifGross written premiums reported at $2.65B or higher in the next quarter.
Worry ifGross written premiums reported below $2.65B in the next quarter.
Why it matters: High ROE shows strong profits. It also shows good use of equity capital.
Supportive ifOperating ROE is over 20% in Q3.
Worry ifOperating ROE is below 18% in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$178 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $354 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,084 loss on $10,000 · 20.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A smooth CFO transition helps keep investor trust. It also supports financial stability.
Watch forTaryn McHarg takes over as CFO. There is no disruption in financial reporting.
Also watch forProblems come up during the CFO transition. This affects financial operations.
Why it matters: An expanded buyback can boost share value and signal confidence in the company's future. It reflects strong capital management.
Supportive ifA positive market reaction or share price rise may follow the buyback announcement.
Worry ifShare prices may fall or there may be no reaction after the buyback announcement.
Why it matters: A stable combined ratio shows good underwriting and risk management. This helps keep profits strong.
Supportive ifCombined ratio remains at or below 89.5% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifCombined ratio exceeds 90% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a shift in the financial sector's health.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median level.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median level.
Why it matters: Active share repurchases show that management believes in the company's value. This can help the stock price.
Supportive ifThe company repurchases at least $10 million worth of shares in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo share repurchases occur in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This acquisition could help Skyward grow. It may also improve its market position.
Supportive ifA press release will confirm when the Apollo acquisition is complete.
Worry ifDelays or problems in the acquisition process could happen.
Why it matters: This would indicate a slowdown in premium growth, which is key for revenue.
Worry ifQ3 gross written premiums growth below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 gross written premiums growth above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: News about the buyback program shows how much management trusts the company.
Supportive ifThey announced more share buybacks beyond the $100 million limit.
Worry ifNo updates or a reduction in the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: Slower net income growth may lead to lower profits and operational issues.
Worry ifNet income growth below 30% year over year in Q3.
Less concerning ifNet income growth above 30% year over year in Q3.