Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-28 · fmp
Champion Homes, Inc. (SKY)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-05
$93.16-3.13%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.24 → 5.25 EPS · FY ending Mar 28, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SKY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Share repurchase program expanded by $50 million | A supporting condition in Champion Homes, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Increase repurchase authorization by $50 million. | Intact | No increase or reduction in share repurchase authorization in 2026 | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-28 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
SKY is a business with a durable-premium profile, but the evidence does not establish it as a steady compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, while company quality has recently weakened and management execution is mixed.
The valuation is stretched and carries a sizable premium to peers, which suggests the market already expects durable business strength. The estimated expectations gap is positive, but model confidence is low, so that signal is uncertain; fragility is rated low.
Near term, recent earnings misses and a run of misses among industry peers make execution a key risk, even though the estimated chance of another miss is described as low. Cash from operations has remained strong, the share repurchase program is on track, and integration of ECN Capital is still being watched.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative for the thesis. Over the near term, results and guidance from DHI, PHM, and LEN may signal whether sector support continues or fades. Over the multi-year view, the thesis depends on sustained cash generation and successful ECN integration.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis remains intact, but the stretched valuation makes consistent execution important. The evidence is mixed, and confidence in the valuation signal is low. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 1 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Company repurchased and retired $50.0 million of its common stock during the first quarter under the previously announced repurchase program.” “In July 2026, the Board of Directors refreshed the share repurchase authorization to provide for $150.0 million of potential future repurchases.”
Maintain quarterly cash from operations near $53 million | Cash from operations stays strong near $53 million quarterly. | Intact | Quarterly cash from operations falls below $50 million | Cash from operations: $72.48M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=$50 million quarterly cash from operations. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 5, 202672,480,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Gross margin near 25% in Q1 FY2027 | A primary condition in Champion Homes, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 24.5% to 25.5% gross margin. | Intact | Gross margin falls below 23% in Q1 FY2027 | Gross margin: 25.53% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 24.5% to 25.5% gross margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 202625.528725 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of at least 5% annually | A primary condition in Champion Homes, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=5% YoY. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 5% in FY27 | Revenue growth: 0% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=5% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20260 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.02 → $5.25 · observed estimates
$2.92B → $3.30B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.02 | $2,916,770,126 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.02 | $2,916,770,126 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.02 | $2,916,770,126 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.02 | $2,916,770,126 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.02 | $2,916,770,126 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.02 | $2,916,770,126 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.02 | $2,916,770,126 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.02 | $2,916,770,126 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.02 | $2,916,770,126 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.02 | $2,916,770,126 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.02 | $2,916,770,126 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.02 | $2,916,770,126 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.02 | $2,916,770,126 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.02 | $2,916,770,126 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.02 | $2,916,770,126 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.02 | $2,916,770,126 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.02 | $2,916,770,126 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.02 | $2,916,770,126 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.02 | $2,916,770,126 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.02 | $2,916,770,126 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.02 | $2,916,770,126 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.02 | $2,916,770,126 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.02 | $2,916,770,126 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.02 | $2,916,770,126 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.02 | $2,916,770,126 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.26 | $3,003,330,425 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.26 | $3,003,330,425 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.26 | $3,003,330,425 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.26 | $3,003,330,425 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.26 | $3,003,330,425 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.26 | $3,003,330,425 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.26 | $3,003,330,425 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.26 | $3,003,330,425 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.26 | $3,003,330,425 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.26 | $3,003,330,425 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.26 | $3,003,330,425 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.26 | $3,003,330,425 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.26 | $3,003,330,425 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.26 | $3,003,330,425 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.26 | $3,003,330,425 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.26 | $3,003,330,425 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.26 | $3,003,330,425 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.26 | $3,003,330,425 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.26 | $3,003,330,425 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.26 | $3,003,330,425 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.26 | $3,003,330,425 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.26 | $3,003,330,425 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.26 | $3,003,330,425 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.26 | $3,003,330,425 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.26 | $3,003,330,425 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.26 | $3,003,330,425 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.26 | $3,003,330,425 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.26 | $3,003,330,425 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.26 | $3,003,337,445 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.26 | $3,003,337,445 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.26 | $3,003,337,445 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.26 | $3,003,337,445 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.26 | $3,003,337,445 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.26 | $3,003,337,445 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.26 | $3,003,337,445 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.26 | $3,003,337,445 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.26 | $3,003,337,445 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.26 | $3,003,337,445 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.26 | $3,003,337,445 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.26 | $3,003,337,445 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.26 | $3,003,337,445 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.26 | $3,003,337,445 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.26 | $3,003,337,445 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.24 | $3,009,097,871 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.24 | $3,009,097,871 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.24 | $3,009,097,871 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.24 | $3,009,097,871 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.24 | $3,009,097,871 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.24 | $3,009,097,871 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.24 | $3,009,097,871 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.24 | $3,009,097,871 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.24 | $3,009,097,871 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.24 | $3,009,097,871 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.24 | $3,009,097,871 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.24 | $3,009,097,871 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.24 | $3,009,097,871 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.24 | $3,009,097,871 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.18 | $3,000,575,354 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.18 | $3,000,575,354 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.18 | $3,000,575,354 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.18 | $3,000,575,354 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.18 | $3,000,575,354 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.18 | $3,000,575,354 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.18 | $3,000,575,354 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.18 | $3,000,575,354 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.25 | $3,299,034,282 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.25 | $3,299,034,282 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.25 | $3,299,034,282 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.25 | $3,299,034,282 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.25 | $3,299,034,282 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.25 | $3,299,034,282 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.25 | $3,299,034,282 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.25 | $3,299,034,282 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.25 | $3,299,034,282 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.25 | $3,299,034,282 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.25 | $3,299,034,282 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.25 | $3,299,034,282 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-05 | $5.25 | $3,299,034,282 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 3 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.