Champion Homes, Inc. (SKY)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$87.76+1.92%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SKY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 27.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SKY — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 4, 2026, Champion Homes, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release relating to its results of operations and financial condition for the quarter ended June 27, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The attached press release contains both U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (“GAAP”) and non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations between non-GAAP and GAAP financia…
Why it matters: Finishing the share repurchase program shows trust in the company's worth and money health.
Supportive ifThe company buys back $150 million in shares.
Worry ifShare buybacks stay under $150 million.
Why it matters: Backlog changes can indicate future sales and demand health.
Worry ifBacklog increases by more than 5% in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifBacklog decreases by more than 10% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: This acquisition could help Champion Homes grow and improve its market position. Investors will look for signs of benefits.
Supportive ifA press release confirming the successful integration of ECN Capital Corp. into Champion Homes.
Worry ifThe acquisition does not close or has big regulatory problems.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow is crucial for funding growth and operations. Improvement would indicate better financial health.
Supportive ifCash from operations shows a positive trend, growing by at least 10% quarter over quarter.
Worry ifCash from operations goes down or stays the same from quarter to quarter.
Why it matters: Changes in backlog show future sales potential. A drop may mean weaker demand.
Worry ifBacklog is up year-over-year. This suggests strong demand for homes.
Less concerning ifBacklog is down year-over-year. This may show problems with demand or sales.
Why it matters: A big drop in net income raises worries about making money and managing costs.
Worry ifQ2 net income falls more than 10% compared to the previous year.
Less concerning ifQ2 net income remains stable or increases year over year.
Why it matters: Earnings results show how well the company meets demand. They also show how well it operates in a tough market.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.89 or higher.
Worry ifQ2 EPS falls below $0.85.
Why it matters: A decline in net income could signal ongoing margin pressure and cost challenges.
Worry ifQ2 net income is below $49 million. This shows ongoing cost problems.
Less concerning ifNet income is above $49 million. This shows good cost management.
Why it matters: Active repurchases show confidence in the company's value. This can help the stock price.
Supportive ifThe company repurchases at least $50 million in shares during Q3.
Worry ifNo share repurchases occur in Q3.
Why it matters: Higher ASP could indicate strong demand and pricing power in a challenging market.
Supportive ifASP per U.S. home sold exceeds $98,600, reflecting effective pricing strategies.
Worry ifASP falls below $98,600. This suggests lower demand or less pricing power.
Why it matters: A continued drop in cash from operations signals potential cash flow issues. This could affect future investments and growth.
Worry ifCash from operations falls below $52.7 million in Q2.
Less concerning ifCash from operations stays the same or goes up above $52.7 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Updates on share buybacks show that management trusts the company's value.
Supportive ifThey announced more share repurchases beyond the new $150 million program.
Worry ifNo new announcements regarding share repurchases by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can change company plans and how things are done. This affects performance.
Watch forThe new leaders are making changes. These changes improve how the company operates.
Also watch forLeadership changes cause problems or drops in performance metrics.
Why it matters: An increase in the share repurchase program shows confidence in the company's value. This could positively impact stock performance.
Supportive ifThere is an extra $50 million added to the share repurchase program.
Worry ifNo announcement of an increase to the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: Leadership changes can affect company strategy and investor confidence. The new Chair's direction will be key.
Watch forThe new Chair announces a strategic plan that aligns with investor interests.
Also watch forThe change creates uncertainty. It does not meet what the market expects.
Why it matters: A big drop in backlog may show weaker demand and future money problems.
Worry ifBacklog decreases more than 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifBacklog stabilizes or grows year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in gross profit margin would show rising costs. This could hurt overall profits.
Worry ifGross profit margin falls below 25% in Q3 fiscal 2027.
Less concerning ifGross profit margin remains above 25% in Q3 fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: Sales growth is key to showing demand strength. It helps gauge market recovery.
Supportive ifQ3 net sales growth exceeds 2% compared to Q3 last year.
Worry ifQ3 net sales growth is below 0% compared to Q3 last year.
Why it matters: A stable margin shows the company is managing costs well amid inflation.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is over 10% in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin falls below 9% in Q3.
Why it matters: Successful integration can boost growth and profits. This affects long-term performance.
Supportive ifManagement says revenue from ECN Capital was positive in Q3.
Worry ifECN Capital had lower revenue in Q3. This was due to integration problems.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$168 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $412 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,307 loss on $10,000 · 33.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.