Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Sky Harbour Group Corp. (SKYH)
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - DevelopmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$10.00-2.82%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - DevelopmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SKYH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve $4-6M Adjusted EBITDA run rate by end of 2026 | The company plans $4-6M adjusted EBITDA by year end. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $4M in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “CFO Francisco Gonzalez commented: “ We welcome two long-term strategic investors to the Sky Harbour shareholder family.” “The program will be implemented across all campuses in the coming quarters.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 11, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth business with elevated risk, not an established compounder. Its long-term thesis is still active but in a watch state, with medium confidence and recent financial performance well below its industry cohort.
The valuation model shows SKYH at a substantial premium to peers, with low confidence in that estimate and an expectations gap tied to optionality, or potential value from future growth. The priced-in signal labels that premium unjustified, though fragility is rated low because the snapshot does not show the full combination of expensive valuation, weak results, and turbulent conditions.
Near term, revenue growth is progressing: second-quarter revenue rose 13% sequentially, and management reaffirmed its year-end revenue run-rate goal. Progress toward profitability is less clear, with operating losses only slightly improved and the EBITDA run-rate goal rated mixed; airport construction is also advancing, but projects extend into late 2026 and 2027.
The multi-year thesis depends on whether revenue growth converts into a credible path toward the stated EBITDA goal, alongside continued execution on airport projects. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while Fed rate cuts could support the sector; weakness among real-estate peers could remove that support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SKYH remains a high-risk growth thesis with revenue momentum but limited evidence of improving profitability and a valuation premium that the snapshot calls unjustified. The key test is whether execution turns its growth plans into stronger financial results. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain operating cash flow breakeven or better | Operating cash flow reached breakeven in late 2025. | Improving | Operating cash flow falls below zero in FY26 | Cash from operations: $485,000 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0 operating cash flow. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 12, 2026485,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve $42-46M revenue run rate by end of 2026 | A primary condition in Sky Harbour Group Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $42M revenue. | Intact | Revenue falls below $42M in FY26 | Revenue: $9.855M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $42M revenue. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 12, 20269,855,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “And the Sky Harbour Operations team continues delivering the safest, fastest and most secure service offering in Business Aviation.” “Revenue per square foot continues to grow as original hangar leases turn over, with an average revenue escalation of 19% upon re-lease for the trailing 12 months as of 8/1/2026 (excluding typical annual escalations of CPI with a floor of 4%).” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.17 → $-0.22 · observed estimates
$0.07B → $0.07B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.17 | $69,419,950 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.17 | $69,419,950 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.17 | $69,419,950 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.17 | $69,419,950 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.20 | $69,424,120 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.20 | $69,424,120 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.20 | $69,424,120 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.15 | $69,932,178 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.15 | $69,932,178 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.20 | $69,935,890 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.15 | $69,932,178 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.15 | $69,932,178 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.15 | $69,932,178 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.17 | $69,935,890 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.17 | $69,935,890 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.15 | $69,932,178 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.17 | $69,935,890 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.15 | $69,932,178 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.15 | $69,932,178 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.15 | $69,932,178 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.15 | $69,932,178 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.15 | $69,932,178 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.15 | $69,932,178 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.15 | $69,932,178 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.15 | $69,932,178 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.21 | $68,714,178 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.21 | $68,714,178 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.21 | $68,714,178 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.21 | $68,714,178 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.21 | $68,714,178 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.22 | $68,714,178 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.22 | $68,714,178 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.22 | $68,714,178 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.22 | $68,714,178 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.22 | $68,714,178 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.22 | $68,714,178 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.22 | $68,714,178 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.22 | $68,714,178 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.22 | $68,714,178 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.22 | $68,714,178 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.22 | $68,714,178 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.22 | $68,714,178 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.22 | $68,714,178 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.22 | $68,714,178 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.22 | $68,714,178 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.22 | $68,714,178 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.22 | $68,714,178 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.22 | $68,714,178 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.22 | $68,714,178 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.22 | $68,714,178 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.22 | $68,714,178 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.22 | $68,159,444 | 5 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.