Sky Harbour Group Corp. (SKYH)
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - DevelopmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
$10.48+0.87%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - DevelopmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SKYH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 177.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 70.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 107.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name its industry peers have been missing lately and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SKYH — debt issuance
Dated 2026-08-26
Other Events. As previously disclosed, on August 21, 2026, Sky Harbour Group Corporation, a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), entered into a Stock Purchase Agreement (the “Stock Purchase Agreement”) with M-COR Capital LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (the “Investor”), pursuant to which the Company agreed to sell 1,000,000 shares (the “Shares”) of its Class A common stock, $0.0001 par value per share, to the Investor in a registered direct offering at a purchase price of $10.00 pe…
Why it matters: Reaching cash flow breakeven is key for long-term growth and stability.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow is improving. It is trending towards breakeven by the end of 2025.
Worry ifOperating cash flow keeps declining. This pushes breakeven further away.
Why it matters: Meeting this revenue target would show strong growth momentum toward the year-end goal.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue reported at $12 million or more, indicating strong growth.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue was below $10 million. This shows weak performance.
Why it matters: This report will provide updates on revenue and EBITDA progress. It is a key moment for investors.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue and EBITDA meeting or beating what was expected.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue and EBITDA falling short of what was expected.
Why it matters: High occupancy rates show strong demand. They also show effective leasing strategies.
Supportive ifOccupancy at OPF exceeds 80% and SJC reaches or exceeds 132%.
Worry ifOccupancy at OPF falls below 75% and SJC drops below 120%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$142 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $355 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,192 loss on $10,000 · 21.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Hitting this target means making more money and working better.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA was $4 million or more.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was less than $2 million.
Why it matters: Reaching this target means more profits and better operations.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA hits at least $4 million. This shows good operational trends.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA stays negative or under $2 million. This shows ongoing losses.
Why it matters: A second consecutive earnings miss could signal deeper issues. It may hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifQ2 earnings report shows a miss similar to the recent earnings miss.
Less concerning ifQ2 earnings report beats expectations.
Why it matters: Finishing this project on time is key for making money and growing in the market.
Supportive ifPhase 2 at Dallas Addison Airport will open before the end of the year.
Worry ifThere are delays in opening Phase 2 at Dallas Addison Airport.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth speeds up, it could benefit Sky Harbour. This would suggest a healthier market environment.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth is speeding up again. This shows the market is recovering.
Worry ifSector revenue growth keeps slowing down. This shows the market is still weak.
Why it matters: Confirming breakeven shows better financial stability. It is an important step for growth.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow hits breakeven or is better.
Worry ifOperating cash flow is still negative.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows strong growth and validates management's guidance for the year.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue was $42 million or more.
Worry ifQ3 revenue was less than $39 million.
Why it matters: Completing this project on time is crucial for expanding the campus network.
Supportive ifADS Phase 2 will open by December 2026.
Worry ifADS Phase 2 completion delayed beyond December 2026.