Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
SkyWest, Inc. (SKYW)
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$79.91-3.03%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
12.16 → 11.00 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SKYW yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS maintains at least $2.5 per share in FY26 | A primary condition in SkyWest, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $2.5 per share. | Under Pressure | EPS guidance falls below $2.5 for FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a regional airline operator with a fleet-expansion and utilization-growth thesis, rather than a turnaround story. The long-term thesis is intact, but recent earnings misses make the near-term picture less settled.
The evidence points to SKYW being cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, meaning expectations appear cautious. The priced-in signal is tagged justified, with low fragility, so the valuation case does not depend on a fragile market setup.
Over the multi-year view, fleet expansion and higher aircraft use have shown progress: E175 aircraft in service or under contract and quarterly block hours both increased. Near term, consecutive earnings misses and a sector headwind create risk, although the latest evidence says financial performance remains in the top half of the industry.
A guidance cut on the next call would add to concerns after recent misses. The sector backdrop also matters: continued strength from airline bellwethers would support the operating environment, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on continued fleet and production progress, with near-term execution and the airline sector as key swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in SkyWest, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Operating income >= $124M next quarter. |
| Intact |
| Operating income falls below $124M in FY26 Q2 |
Operating income: $176.029M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $124M next quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 30, 2026176,029,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth at or above 6% next year | Analysts expect about 6% revenue growth next year, supporting a recovery. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 6% in FY27 | Revenue growth: 6.41% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=6% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 30, 20266.411823 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$11.99 → $11.00 · observed estimates
$4.51B → $4.50B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $11.99 | $4,514,086,100 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $12.10 | $4,560,499,520 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $12.10 | $4,560,499,520 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $12.10 | $4,552,516,190 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $12.10 | $4,552,516,190 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $12.10 | $4,552,516,190 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $12.10 | $4,552,516,190 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $12.10 | $4,552,516,190 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $12.10 | $4,572,077,325 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $12.10 | $4,552,516,190 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $12.10 | $4,572,077,325 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $12.10 | $4,572,077,325 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $12.10 | $4,572,077,325 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $12.10 | $4,572,077,325 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $12.10 | $4,554,250,340 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $12.10 | $4,554,250,340 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $12.10 | $4,554,250,340 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $12.10 | $4,573,891,169 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $12.10 | $4,573,891,169 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $12.10 | $4,573,891,169 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $12.10 | $4,573,891,169 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $12.10 | $4,573,891,169 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $12.10 | $4,573,891,169 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $12.10 | $4,573,891,169 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $12.10 | $4,573,891,169 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $12.10 | $4,573,891,169 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $12.10 | $4,573,891,169 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $12.10 | $4,573,910,658 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $12.10 | $4,573,910,658 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $12.10 | $4,573,910,658 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $12.10 | $4,573,910,658 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $12.22 | $4,583,534,992 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $12.22 | $4,583,534,992 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $12.22 | $4,583,534,992 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $12.22 | $4,583,534,992 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $12.22 | $4,583,534,992 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $12.22 | $4,583,534,992 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $12.22 | $4,583,534,992 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $12.22 | $4,583,534,992 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $12.22 | $4,583,534,992 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $12.22 | $4,583,534,992 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $12.22 | $4,583,534,992 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $12.22 | $4,583,534,992 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $12.22 | $4,583,534,992 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $12.22 | $4,583,534,992 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $12.22 | $4,583,534,992 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $12.22 | $4,583,534,992 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $12.22 | $4,583,534,992 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $12.22 | $4,583,534,992 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $12.22 | $4,583,534,992 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $12.22 | $4,583,534,992 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $12.22 | $4,583,534,992 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $12.22 | $4,583,534,992 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $12.22 | $4,583,534,992 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $12.22 | $4,583,534,992 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $12.22 | $4,583,534,992 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $12.22 | $4,583,534,992 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $12.22 | $4,583,534,992 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $12.22 | $4,583,534,992 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $12.22 | $4,583,534,992 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $12.22 | $4,583,534,992 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $12.22 | $4,583,534,992 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $12.22 | $4,583,534,992 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $12.22 | $4,583,534,992 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $12.22 | $4,583,534,992 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $12.22 | $4,583,534,992 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $12.21 | $4,576,234,992 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $12.21 | $4,576,234,992 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $12.21 | $4,576,234,992 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $12.16 | $4,580,705,658 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $12.16 | $4,588,293,992 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $12.16 | $4,588,293,992 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $12.16 | $4,588,293,992 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $12.16 | $4,588,293,992 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $12.12 | $4,620,701,301 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $12.12 | $4,620,701,301 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $12.12 | $4,620,701,301 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $12.12 | $4,620,701,301 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $12.12 | $4,620,701,301 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $12.12 | $4,620,701,301 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $12.12 | $4,620,701,301 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $12.12 | $4,620,701,301 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $12.12 | $4,620,701,301 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $12.12 | $4,620,701,301 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $12.12 | $4,620,701,301 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $12.12 | $4,620,701,301 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $12.12 | $4,620,701,301 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $12.12 | $4,620,701,301 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $12.12 | $4,620,701,301 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $12.12 | $4,620,701,301 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $12.12 | $4,620,701,301 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $12.12 | $4,620,701,301 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $12.12 | $4,620,701,301 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $12.12 | $4,620,701,301 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $12.12 | $4,620,701,301 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $12.12 | $4,620,701,301 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $12.12 | $4,620,701,301 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $11.00 | $4,503,783,828 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $11.00 | $4,503,783,828 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $11.00 | $4,503,783,828 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $11.00 | $4,503,783,828 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $11.00 | $4,503,783,828 | 3 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.