SkyWest, Inc. (SKYW)
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$79.91-3.03%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SKYW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -44.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 5.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 49.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SKYW — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-29
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On October 29, 2026, SkyWest, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended September 30, 2026. The full text of the Company’s press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) is furnished pursuant to General Instruction B.2 to Form 8-K and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the…
Why it matters: SkyWest plans 13 E175 deliveries in 2026 and 18 in 2027. Timely deliveries support fleet growth and flying capacity.
Supportive ifSkyWest reports all 13 planned 2026 E175 deliveries. It then reports 18 deliveries in 2027, with no major delays.
Worry ifSkyWest reports fewer than 13 E175 deliveries for 2026 or cuts the 2027 plan below 18.
Why it matters: Higher fuel costs hurt Q3 results in SkyWest’s prorate business. Another rise could offset gains from more flying.
Worry ifThe next quarterly report says higher prorate fuel costs again cut results from the same quarter last year.
Less concerning ifThe next quarterly release says prorate fuel cost fell year over year and no longer reduced results.
Why it matters: The first redesigned CRJ450 is due to start service in fall 2026. Its entry would show progress on the CRJ200 conversion plan.
Supportive ifSkyWest or United confirms the first CRJ450 entered passenger service by the end of 2026.
Worry ifThe first CRJ450 has not entered service by the end of 2026, or SkyWest reports a delay to the plan.
Why it matters: More block hours show that SkyWest is flying more. Recent growth came from more aircraft in service and strong demand.
Supportive ifQuarterly block hours rise at least 3% year over year in the next reported quarter.
Worry ifQuarterly block hours fall year over year, or growth drops below 3%.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$151 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $382 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,298 loss on $10,000 · 33.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: SkyWest spent $163 million on aircraft and other assets in Q3. Cash fell from $707 million at year-end to $569 million.
Worry ifCash falls below $569 million while total debt rises above $2.4 billion in the next quarterly report.
Less concerning ifCash rises above $569 million and total debt stays at or below $2.4 billion in the next quarterly report.
Why it matters: SkyWest bought about $75 million of shares in Q3 and had $238 million left in its program. Future reports can show whether it keeps buying shares.
Watch forA later company report shows the company bought back shares while funds remain in the program.
Also watch forA later company report says the program was paused or ended, or no more shares were bought back.