SkyWest, Inc. (SKYW)
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$99.06+2.93%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SKYW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -43.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 7.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 50.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers
SKYW — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-23
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On July 23, 2026, SkyWest, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended June 30, 2026. The full text of the Company’s press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) is furnished pursuant to General Instruction B.2 to Form 8-K and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securiti…
Why it matters: New E175 aircraft help grow the fleet and increase capacity.
Supportive ifSkyWest takes delivery of at least 3 new E175 aircraft by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifSkyWest fails to deliver any new E175 aircraft by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Updates on share buybacks show that management trusts the company's value.
Supportive ifSkyWest announces more share buybacks. This is in addition to the $250 million increase.
Worry ifSkyWest suspends or reduces the stock repurchase program.
Why it matters: Cash flow generation is essential for long-term health. An increase would indicate better cash management.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations in Q2 2026 exceeds $200 million.
Worry ifCash flow from operations in Q2 2026 is below $100 million.
Why it matters: Better efficiency helps make more money. Good results show the company is improving.
Supportive ifOperating income in Q2 2026 increases by more than 10% compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifIf operating income in Q2 2026 goes down or stays the same as Q1 2026.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$145 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $373 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,424 loss on $10,000 · 34.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This report will provide insights into revenue growth and operational efficiency. It is a key event for investors.
Watch forThe earnings report shows revenue growth over 10%. It also shows better operational metrics.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows revenue growth under 5%. It also shows worse operational metrics.
Why it matters: Higher fuel costs can hurt profits. Monitoring this helps assess cost management.
Worry ifOperating expenses increase by less than 5% in Q3 2026 compared to Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifOperating expenses rise by more than 10% in Q3 2026 compared to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Better efficiency helps manage costs. It affects cash flow and profits.
Supportive ifEfficiency metrics show better results from Q1.
Worry ifEfficiency metrics are worse compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key priority for management. Exceeding 8% would signal progress.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue growth exceeds 8% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue growth is below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Lowering costs will make operations more efficient. This will help cash flow.
Supportive ifPilot training costs decrease or stabilize compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifPilot training costs continue to rise compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: The CRJ450 will improve service quality. It will also give more options for the fleet.
Supportive ifThe first CRJ450 aircraft is announced to be in service by October 2026.
Worry ifThe CRJ450 service launch is delayed beyond Fall 2026.
Why it matters: Block hour production growth shows demand strength and fleet utilization. It impacts revenue.
Supportive ifBlock hour production grows year over year by more than 5%.
Worry ifBlock hour production growth is less than 3% year over year.
Why it matters: If operating income stays steady, it shows better efficiency. This is key for making more money in the long run.
Supportive ifOperating income in Q2 2026 is above $130 million.
Worry ifOperating income in Q2 2026 is below $130 million.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows smarter use of money. It also shows good financial health.
Supportive ifCash flow generation is better than in Q1 2026.
Worry ifCash flow generation is worse than in Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Higher operating costs can hurt profits. Keeping an eye on this helps with cost control.
Worry ifQ3 operating expenses grow year over year by more than 10%.
Less concerning ifQ3 operating expenses grow year over year by less than 5%.
Why it matters: Higher fuel costs can hurt profits. Watching this helps check how well costs are managed.
Worry ifQ3 fuel costs per gallon increase more than 10% compared to Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifQ3 fuel costs per gallon increase less than 5% compared to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Stable cash flow is crucial for funding operations and growth. It indicates financial health.
Supportive ifCash from operating activities is up from the last quarter.
Worry ifCash from operating activities is down from the last quarter.
Why it matters: If expenses rise faster, it impacts profitability and cash flow. Investors will be concerned.
Worry ifOperating expenses increase less than 7% while revenue grows more than 5%.
Less concerning ifOperating expenses rise more than 10% while revenue growth is below 5%.