Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
SL Green Realty (SLG)
NYSEReal EstateReit - OfficeSnapshot 2026-11-04
$51.55-4.15%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - OfficeSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SLG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend payments | The company maintains dividend payments despite challenges. | Intact | dividend per share falls below $0.60 | Dividend per share: $0.62 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Maintain dividend near $0.62 per share quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 20260.618 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a rate-sensitive office real estate recovery thesis, with some potential support from stronger leasing and higher replacement rents. The thesis is in a watch state: management has met an occupancy milestone early, but recent financial performance remains below its industry cohort.
SLG is valued at a 3.1 premium versus peers, and the evidence labels that premium unjustified. The expectations gap is 0.79, with optionality, meaning value tied to possible future improvements, identified as the main driver; confidence in that valuation assessment is low.
Near term, execution is mixed: Manhattan office occupancy reached 95.0% in 2026-Q3, and replacement-lease rents were 15.7% higher in the first nine months of 2026, but nine-month diluted FFO was below the prior-year period. Management raised 2026 FFO guidance, though the latest earnings were in line and company momentum fell sharply after fresh earnings; a guidance cut would also risk a credibility setback.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis depends on leasing gains and higher rents translating into stronger realized FFO. Lower interest rates could help the rate-sensitive real estate sector, while weakness among sector peers could remove that support. Whether management sustains its raised guidance is another key swing factor.
The multi-year view has evidence of operating progress in Manhattan, but weak realized FFO, fading momentum, and an unjustified peer premium leave the thesis unsettled. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in SL Green Realty's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= -0.12 USD per share in FY26. |
| Under Pressure |
| EPS guidance falls below -0.27 USD per share |
Diluted EPS: $1.01 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= -0.12 USD per share in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 22, 20261.01 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income improvement | SL Green Realty is improving revenue and operating income. | Under Pressure | operating income falls below $136M quarterly | Operating income: $32.3M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $145M operating income quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 22, 202632,300,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth to stabilize or improve | A primary condition in SL Green Realty's published investment case. The stated target is >= $253M quarterly revenue. | Under Pressure | quarterly revenue falls below $239M | Revenue: $273.025M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $253M quarterly revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 22, 2026273,025,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.75 → $-1.49 · observed estimates
$0.64B → $0.65B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.75 | $638,660,380 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.92 | $713,644,561 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.75 | $638,660,380 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.75 | $638,660,380 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.75 | $638,660,380 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.75 | $638,660,380 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.75 | $638,660,380 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.75 | $676,477,434 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.75 | $676,477,434 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.75 | $638,660,380 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.75 | $656,500,651 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.75 | $656,500,651 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.75 | $656,500,651 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.75 | $656,500,651 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.28 | $638,660,380 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.28 | $638,660,380 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.28 | $638,660,380 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.75 | $655,053,337 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.28 | $638,660,380 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.75 | $655,053,337 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.75 | $655,053,337 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.75 | $655,053,337 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.75 | $655,053,337 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.75 | $655,053,337 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.75 | $655,053,337 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.74 | $668,883,504 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.74 | $668,883,504 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.74 | $668,883,504 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.74 | $668,883,504 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.74 | $668,883,504 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.74 | $668,883,504 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.74 | $663,695,003 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.74 | $663,695,003 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.74 | $663,695,003 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.44 | $663,695,003 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.44 | $663,695,003 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.44 | $663,695,003 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.44 | $663,695,003 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.44 | $663,695,003 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.44 | $663,695,003 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.44 | $663,695,003 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.44 | $663,695,003 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.44 | $663,695,003 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.44 | $663,695,003 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.44 | $663,695,003 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.44 | $663,695,003 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.44 | $663,695,003 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.44 | $663,695,003 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.44 | $663,695,003 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.44 | $663,695,003 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.44 | $663,695,003 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.44 | $663,695,003 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.44 | $663,695,003 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.44 | $663,695,003 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.44 | $663,695,003 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.44 | $663,695,003 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.44 | $661,315,526 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.44 | $661,315,526 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.44 | $661,315,526 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.44 | $661,315,526 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.44 | $661,315,526 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.44 | $661,315,526 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.44 | $661,315,526 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.44 | $661,315,526 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.44 | $661,315,526 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.44 | $661,315,526 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.44 | $661,315,526 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.44 | $661,315,526 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.44 | $661,315,526 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.44 | $661,315,526 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.44 | $661,315,526 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.44 | $661,315,526 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.44 | $661,315,526 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.44 | $661,315,526 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.44 | $661,315,526 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.44 | $661,315,526 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.44 | $661,315,526 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.44 | $661,435,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.44 | $661,435,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.44 | $666,610,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.44 | $666,610,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.37 | $666,610,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.37 | $666,610,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.37 | $666,610,444 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.37 | $656,557,061 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.37 | $656,557,061 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.38 | $669,963,181 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.44 | $679,163,181 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.44 | $689,576,099 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.44 | $684,685,699 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.49 | $681,660,399 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.49 | $681,660,399 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.49 | $681,660,399 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.49 | $681,660,399 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.49 | $657,923,515 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.49 | $650,999,626 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.49 | $650,999,626 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.49 | $652,179,626 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.49 | $652,179,626 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.49 | $652,179,626 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.49 | $652,179,626 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.49 | $652,179,626 | 4 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.