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SLM
SLM CorpNASDAQFinancialsCredit ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$22.38+1.08%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is fragile, and risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include potential guidance cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers like Visa and Mastercard. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Credit Services
- Market cap
- $4.35B
- Employees
- 1,788
- IPO date
- 1997-08-06
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-23
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $22.38. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$23.25consensus
Range $18.15 – $36.68
vs price: -4% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$27.64consensus
Range $20.62 – $30.32
vs price: -19% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $22 SLM trades at 6× p/e, below its 11× p/e peer median. Our $23 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $26–$30. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
6.2x
peer 10.9x · own history 6.4x
Premium
0.6x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
-4%
our forecast 6%
Our fair value
$23.25
range $19.13 – $36.68
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 4% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
98th pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted -0.44x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
5th pctl · Financials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BearishEPS revised -4.1% / 30d, n=11for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.49 → $0.47 (-4.1% / 30d). 2 raised, 6 cut, 11 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 64% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in growth, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- strong
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$138.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$336.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,506.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · confidence_labelsmall change
Confidence changed from 'high' to 'medium'.
As of June 12, 2026, confidence changed to medium. Risk fell. The sector backdrop remained a headwind. Earnings quality was described as fragile, and management was noted as volatile.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceMonthsactive 14d
Watch for the next earnings report on July 23, 2026
Why it matters: This report will show how SLM is performing amid recent changes. Key metrics will be revealed.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Earnings show more revenue or better ways to use capital.
Confirms the other:Earnings show less revenue or no better ways to use capital.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SLM yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
- Watch for changes in FOMC interest rate policy on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like V, MA, and AXP keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting SLM and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
Downside triggers
- If SLM reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-04-23), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on SLM and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like V, MA, and AXP start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping SLM and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits SLM and other Financials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-1529d agoItem 1.01
ENTRY INTO A MATERIAL DEFINITIVE AGREEMENT. On May 15, 2026, SLM Corporation (the “Company”) closed an offering of $500,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 6.495% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Senior Notes due 2032 (the “Notes”) issued by the Company (the “Offering”). The Notes have been registered under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, pursuant to a registration statement on Form S-3 (File No. 333-281147) (the “Registration Statement”). The Company has filed with the SEC a prospectus suppl…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+6.2 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.