Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Southland Holdings, Inc. (SLND)
AMEXIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.69-8.65%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
AMEXIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SLND yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
secure credit agreements for surety funds | Credit agreements help advance surety funds for projects. | Improving | credit agreements are withdrawn or reduced significantly in 2026 | Qualitative: $151M preferred issuance & $110M surety support active Company issued $151M preferred shares to formalize surety bonding support; sureties provided $110M in financial assistance. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 11, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making cyclical business with volatile management and weak recent performance. The long-term thesis is in a watch state, not a clear recovery story, and confidence in the evidence is medium.
The valuation evidence points to SLND being cheap versus peers, while the model also shows a small premium and has low confidence. The expectations gap is strongly negative, suggesting expectations remain weak; the available evidence does not show that the low valuation resolves the business risks.
Near-term fundamentals face elevated risk: revenue fell from $172.4 million in 2026-Q1 to $113.3 million in Q2, while operating losses widened from $19.7 million to $87.9 million. Management is expanding surety financing and has resolved litigation tied to the WSCC project, but operational improvement remains limited and recent earnings misses raise the risk of another miss.
The multi-year thesis depends on better operational performance, disciplined bidding, and continued access to financing support. Near-term sector signals matter too: continued strength from industrial bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, while weaker results or a weakening jobs trend could add pressure to cyclical businesses like SLND.
For the next 1 to 3 years, SLND’s case rests on whether financing and partnership progress can translate into improved operations and profitability. Current evidence shows substantial execution and cyclical risks, with only limited signs of progress. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Southland Holdings aims to fix its losses after a $28.35M net loss in 2026-Q1. |
| Broken |
| net loss remains worse than -$20M over next 4 quarters |
Net income: $-84.267M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net loss improves to better than -$10M in next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 12, 2026-84,267,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
maintain revenue near $700M | A supporting condition in Southland Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is revenue >= $700M in FY26 and FY27. | Broken | revenue falls below $650M in FY26 or FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
successful collaboration with Clark/Lewis partnership | The company formed a strategic partnership with Clark/Lewis to improve collaboration. | Improving | partnership fails to resolve claims or improve collaboration by end 2026 | Qualitative progress: $71M award secured, partnership agreement formalized SLND secured a $71M water pipeline award and formalized surety agreements, indicating successful partnership execution and project collaboration. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.78 → $-0.77 · observed estimates
$0.71B → $0.66B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.78 | $711,627,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.78 | $711,627,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.78 | $711,627,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.78 | $711,627,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.78 | $711,627,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.78 | $711,627,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.78 | $711,627,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.78 | $711,627,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.78 | $711,627,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.78 | $711,627,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.78 | $711,627,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.78 | $711,627,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.78 | $711,627,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.78 | $711,627,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.78 | $711,627,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.78 | $711,627,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.78 | $711,627,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.78 | $711,627,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.78 | $711,627,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.78 | $711,627,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.78 | $711,627,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.78 | $711,627,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.78 | $711,627,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.78 | $711,627,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.78 | $711,627,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.77 | $656,106,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.