Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Sylvamo Corp. (SLVM)
NYSEMaterialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$33.60+5.76%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.22 → 4.82 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SLVM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend of $0.45 per share | The company keeps paying a $0.45 dividend per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.45 in next 4 quarters | Dividend per share: $0.45 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 0.45 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 20260.45 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 6, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an investment tied to a materials-sector tailwind and the success of a company transition, rather than a clear near-term earnings trend. The multi-year view is on watch: management execution is stable, but recent financial performance is neutral and risk has risen to elevated.
The valuation evidence points to SLVM being cheap versus peers, with the model describing expectations as justified and low fragility. The expectations gap is negative, so the evidence does not show that the market is already assuming a strong improvement.
Near term, earnings remain hard to read: SLVM has had both misses and beats, peers have recently missed, and the estimated chance of another miss is a watch item. In the first half of 2026, free cash flow improved from negative $59 million to negative $23 million but remained negative; management frames the year as a transition and points to second-half seasonality. Over the multi-year thesis, Eastover investments are progressing on schedule, while annual free cash flow above $300 million remains an unproven goal.
The key company swing factor is whether investments and normalized capital spending support management’s annual free-cash-flow goal. A guidance cut at the next call would be a meaningful negative signal. Sector conditions also matter: continued strength from IP, LPX, and CLW would support the tailwind, while weaker results or guidance could reduce it.
For the next 1 to 3 years, SLVM’s thesis combines low relative valuation and a supportive sector backdrop with uneven recent performance, elevated risk, and cash generation that still needs proof. The view hinges on management delivering through the transition and sector conditions remaining supportive. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Our board of directors declared a $0.45 dividend for the third quarter, which we paid July 28.” “-Capital Allocation Our board of directors declared a $0.45 dividend for the second quarter, which we paid April 28.”
Generate > $300 million in free cash flow annually | Sylvamo aims to generate over $300 million in free cash flow yearly. | Intact | Free cash flow falls below $300 million in FY26 | Free cash flow: $-11M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=300 USD_MILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 2026-11,000,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “As industry conditions turn, our capital spending normalizes and the benefits from our investments begin to materialize, we have the potential to generate annually: • > $300 million in free cash flow • > 15% return on invested capital Earnings Webcast The company will host an audio webcast at 10 a.m.” “Cash from continuing operations was $38 million, and free cash flow * was negative $23 million.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stabilize revenue amidst market challenges | Revenue should stabilize despite market problems. | Improving | Revenue growth falls below 0% YoY in FY26 | Revenue growth: 1.51% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Revenue growth >= 0% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 20261.511335 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.21 → $4.82 · observed estimates
$3.41B → $3.36B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.21 | $3,414,842,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.21 | $3,414,842,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.21 | $3,414,842,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.21 | $3,414,742,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.21 | $3,414,742,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.21 | $3,414,742,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.23 | $3,414,842,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.23 | $3,414,842,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.23 | $3,414,842,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.21 | $3,414,742,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.21 | $3,414,742,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.21 | $3,414,742,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.23 | $3,414,842,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.23 | $3,414,842,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.21 | $3,414,742,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.21 | $3,414,742,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.23 | $3,414,842,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.23 | $3,414,842,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.08 | $3,419,604,910 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.23 | $3,414,842,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.23 | $3,414,842,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.23 | $3,414,842,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.23 | $3,414,842,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.23 | $3,414,842,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.23 | $3,414,842,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.13 | $3,419,604,911 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.13 | $3,419,604,911 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.13 | $3,419,604,911 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.13 | $3,419,604,911 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.13 | $3,419,604,911 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.13 | $3,419,604,911 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.13 | $3,419,604,911 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.13 | $3,419,604,911 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.13 | $3,419,604,911 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.13 | $3,419,604,911 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.13 | $3,419,604,911 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.13 | $3,419,604,911 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.13 | $3,419,604,911 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.13 | $3,419,604,911 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.13 | $3,419,604,911 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.13 | $3,419,604,911 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.13 | $3,419,604,911 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.13 | $3,419,604,911 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.13 | $3,419,604,911 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.13 | $3,419,604,911 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.13 | $3,419,604,911 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.13 | $3,419,604,911 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.13 | $3,419,604,911 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.13 | $3,419,604,911 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.13 | $3,419,604,911 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.13 | $3,419,604,911 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.13 | $3,419,604,911 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.13 | $3,419,604,911 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.22 | $3,467,083,929 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.22 | $3,467,083,929 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.22 | $3,467,083,929 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.22 | $3,467,083,929 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.22 | $3,467,083,929 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.22 | $3,467,083,929 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.22 | $3,467,083,929 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.22 | $3,467,083,929 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.22 | $3,467,083,929 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.22 | $3,467,083,929 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.22 | $3,467,083,929 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.22 | $3,467,083,929 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.22 | $3,467,083,929 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.22 | $3,467,083,929 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.22 | $3,467,083,929 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.22 | $3,467,083,929 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.22 | $3,467,083,929 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.22 | $3,467,083,929 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.22 | $3,467,083,929 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.22 | $3,467,083,929 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.22 | $3,467,083,929 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.22 | $3,467,083,929 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.22 | $3,467,083,929 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.22 | $3,467,083,929 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.22 | $3,467,083,929 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.22 | $3,467,083,929 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.09 | $3,467,083,929 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.09 | $3,467,083,929 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.04 | $3,437,360,023 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.04 | $3,437,360,023 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.04 | $3,437,360,023 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.97 | $3,418,760,023 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.97 | $3,418,760,023 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.89 | $3,397,960,023 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.89 | $3,397,960,023 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.82 | $3,359,200,028 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.82 | $3,359,200,028 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.82 | $3,359,200,028 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.82 | $3,359,200,028 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.82 | $3,359,200,028 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.82 | $3,359,200,028 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.82 | $3,359,200,028 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.82 | $3,359,200,028 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.82 | $3,359,200,028 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.82 | $3,359,200,028 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.82 | $3,359,200,028 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.82 | $3,359,200,028 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.82 | $3,359,200,028 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.82 | $3,359,200,028 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.