Sylvamo Corp. (SLVM)
NYSEMaterialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$35.97+1.24%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SLVM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -33.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 36.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and its industry peers have been missing lately. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SLVM — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-08
of Form 8-K and General Instruction B.2 thereunder. Such information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. SECTION 2. FINANCIAL INFORMATION.
Why it matters: Successful price increases will help margins and revenue. This is key for recovery.
Supportive ifNorth America sees higher sales prices in Q3. This helps improve margins.
Worry ifSales prices in North America do not rise as expected. This puts pressure on margins.
Why it matters: Better cash flow from operations is important for financial health and goals.
Supportive ifQ2 cash from operations is higher than Q1.
Worry ifQ2 cash from operations is lower than Q1.
Why it matters: A rise in sales volume shows better demand. This means successful transition strategies and higher revenue.
Supportive ifNorth America sales volume increases by more than 10% in Q2 compared to Q1.
Worry ifSales volume in North America keeps falling or stays the same.
Why it matters: Keeping the $0.45 per share dividend shows the company is stable and has cash.
Supportive ifAn official announcement will confirm the dividend stays at $0.45 per share.
Worry ifAn announcement of a dividend cut or stop.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$144 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $355 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,625 loss on $10,000 · 36.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A profit recovery would show better efficiency and market conditions. This is key for financial health.
Supportive ifNorth America profit is positive in Q3 after a loss in Q2.
Worry ifNorth America profits are still negative in Q3. This shows ongoing problems.
Why it matters: If price increases succeed, margins will improve. This will help revenue growth in North America.
Supportive ifPrice increases are fully realized across all regions in Q3.
Worry ifFailure to realize price increases leads to margin compression and lower revenue.
Why it matters: Finishing this project will add 60,000 short tons of capacity. This could improve earnings and cash flow.
Supportive ifThe paper machine project will finish during maintenance in Q4 2026.
Worry ifThe project is delayed beyond Q4 2026 or fails to meet capacity expectations.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how the company is doing with money and operations.
Watch forEarnings report shows net income returning to positive after a loss in Q1.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows another net loss or a drop in adjusted EBITDA.
Why it matters: Successful price increases can boost revenue and margins. This is crucial for recovery.
Supportive ifNorth American paper prices will rise in Q3 2026.
Worry ifPrice increases in North America fail to materialize or are rolled back.
Why it matters: Improvements in Europe are key for profits. They help offset losses in other areas.
Watch forEurope shows better operating profit in Q3. This means better cost management.
Also watch forEurope still reports losses. This shows ongoing operational problems.
Why it matters: Maintaining the dividend shows financial health. Cuts could signal deeper issues.
Supportive ifThe company declares a dividend of $0.45 per share for Q2.
Worry ifThe company cuts the dividend below $0.45 per share.
Why it matters: Finishing this project will add capacity. It will also help revenue grow.
Supportive ifThe paper machine project at Eastover is on track to finish in Q4.
Worry ifThe project has delays or extra costs. This affects plans to expand capacity.
Why it matters: Stable revenue shows the company is handling market challenges well.
Watch forQ2 revenue reported flat or growing year over year.
Also watch forQ2 revenue reported declining year over year.
Why it matters: Finishing these projects on time is key. It will boost production and make operations better.
Supportive ifAll Eastover mill projects are completed by the first quarter of 2027.
Worry ifAny project delays will be announced. This will push completion past Q1 2027.
Why it matters: Improving free cash flow is crucial for meeting the goal of over $300 million annually.
Supportive ifFree cash flow for Q2 is reported as greater than negative $50 million.
Worry ifFree cash flow for Q2 remains below negative $50 million.
Why it matters: Positive free cash flow would show the company is on track to meet its $300 million annual goal. This is key for financial health.
Supportive ifQ3 free cash flow is positive. This shows better cash generation.
Worry ifQ3 free cash flow remains negative, signaling ongoing cash flow challenges.