Sylvamo Corp. (SLVM)
NYSEMaterialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$33.08-1.55%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SLVM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -32.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 33.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and its industry peers have been missing lately. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 5 industry peers
SLVM — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-08
of Form 8-K and General Instruction B.2 thereunder. Such information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. SECTION 2. FINANCIAL INFORMATION.
Why it matters: A timely start would mark a key step in the woodyard work. A delay would extend the wait for the full project.
Supportive ifSylvamo reports the softwood operation started by the end of Q1 2027.
Worry ifSylvamo reports the start moved past Q1 2027.
Why it matters: The new sheeter is part of Eastover's investment plan. An on-time start would confirm progress toward the planned plant changes.
Supportive ifSylvamo reports the sheeter installed and running by the end of Q4.
Worry ifSylvamo says installation or start-up moved past Q4.
Why it matters: Sylvamo says price gains should continue through Q3, but imports rose in Q2. The next report can show whether higher prices held up.
Watch forQ3 North America sales price and mix rise from Q2, while imports do not rise again from Q2.
Also watch forQ3 North America sales price and mix fall from Q2, and imports rise again from Q2.
Why it matters: Management says most free cash flow comes in the second half. Positive Q3 cash flow would support its annual cash goal.
Supportive ifThe Q3 report shows free cash flow above $0, after negative $23 million in Q2.
Worry ifThe Q3 report shows free cash flow at or below negative $23 million.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$148 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $404 loss on $10,000 · 4.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,245 loss on $10,000 · 42.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.