Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc. (SMBC)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$74.17+1.04%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SMBC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -4.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -13.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
SMBC — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-22
Other Events On July 21, 2026, the Board of Directors of Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) declared its 129th consecutive quarterly dividend on common stock since the inception of the Company. The dividend of $0.27 per common share will be payable on August 31, 2026, to stockholders of record at the close of business on August 14, 2026. In other matters, the Company will host a conference call to discuss the release on July 23, 2026, at 9:30 a.m., central time. The call will be…
Why it matters: Slower loan growth could signal weakening demand and affect future earnings.
Worry ifNet loans grow less than $217.5 million or below 5.4% from the previous year.
Less concerning ifNet loans grow more than $217.5 million or above 5.4%, indicating strong demand.
Why it matters: A buyback program would show confidence in the company's value and support the stock price.
Supportive ifA press release announcing a share buyback program with a specific dollar amount.
Worry ifNo announcement of a buyback program by the next earnings call.
Why it matters: An increase in the dividend would reflect strong cash flow and commitment to shareholder returns.
Supportive ifThe dividend declared is above $0.27 per share. This shows commitment to shareholders.
Worry ifThe dividend is $0.27 or less. This may mean cash flow problems.
Why it matters: Strong net income growth would show the bank's ability to manage costs and grow revenue. This could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ4 2026 net income growth exceeds 25% compared to Q4 2025.
Worry ifQ4 2026 net income growth is below 20% compared to Q4 2025.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$71 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $188 loss on $10,000 · 1.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,696 loss on $10,000 · 17.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The dividend shows that management feels confident about finances. A rise would mean strong performance.
Supportive ifThe declared dividend is greater than $0.27 per share.
Worry ifThe declared dividend is less than or equal to $0.27 per share.
Why it matters: Net income over $20 million shows strong earnings growth and good cost control.
Supportive ifQ4 net income was over $20 million. This shows continued growth.
Worry ifQ4 net income was below $20 million. This suggests possible earnings weakness.
Why it matters: Slower loan growth may show weakening demand. This could affect overall profits.
Worry ifGross loan balances increase less than 5% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifGross loan balances increase more than 7%, indicating strong demand.
Why it matters: A higher provision may mean more credit risk. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifProvision for credit losses exceeds $3.2 million in Q4.
Less concerning ifProvision for credit losses is under $3.2 million. This suggests better credit quality.
Why it matters: Loan growth is important for making money. Going above this level shows strong demand and good lending.
Supportive ifGross loan balances reported above $4.4 billion in the next earnings report.
Worry ifGross loan balances reported below $4.3 billion in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: An increase in the dividend would reflect confidence in future earnings and cash flow.
Supportive ifThe Board declares a dividend of $0.30 per share or higher.
Worry ifThe Board maintains the dividend at $0.27 per share or lower.
Why it matters: Higher credit loss provisions may mean more credit risk and lower profits.
Worry ifPCL was over $3.5 million. This shows growing credit concerns.
Less concerning ifPCL was below $3.5 million. This suggests stable credit quality.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This could impact Southern Missouri Bancorp's performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below 12% year over year, which is the median.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth stays above 12% year over year.
Why it matters: If PCL rises above $3.5 million, it could mean higher credit risk. This may hurt profits.
Worry ifPCL is above $3.5 million. This shows increased credit risk.
Less concerning ifPCL is below $3 million. This suggests stable credit quality.
Why it matters: A higher earnings per share would show continued strong profitability and growth. This could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifEarnings per share for Q4 exceeds $1.83, indicating strong performance.
Worry ifEarnings per share for Q4 falls below $1.83, suggesting weaker performance.
Why it matters: The dividend shows that management values shareholders. It also shows they are financially strong.
Supportive ifThe dividend remains at $0.27 per share for the next quarter.
Worry ifIf the dividend drops below $0.27 per share, it may mean financial trouble.
Why it matters: Strong loan growth indicates demand and effective lending strategies. This supports overall revenue growth.
Supportive ifLoan growth exceeds $69.4 million in the fourth quarter.
Worry ifLoan growth is less than $69.4 million, suggesting weaker demand.
Why it matters: Low nonperforming loans show good credit quality. This means the company manages risks well.
Supportive ifNonperforming loans remain below 0.70% of gross loans.
Worry ifIf nonperforming loans go over 0.70% of gross loans, it may mean credit problems.