Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$13.29+6.58%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SMPL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -25.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -8.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 17.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SMPL — President transition
Dated 2026-04-21
Senior Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer — Amy Held: Ms. Amy Held will depart the Company by June 1, 2026.
Why it matters: Management links cost work to a margin rebound. The result will test whether those actions can offset weak sales and higher costs.
Watch forFY2027 GAAP gross margin rises 250 to 300 basis points year over year.
Also watch forFY2027 GAAP gross margin rises by less than 250 basis points, or falls year over year.
Why it matters: Management expects another sharp sales decline for the year. The result will show whether the brand reset is gaining traction.
Watch forFY2027 net sales decline by less than 13% year over year.
Also watch forFY2027 net sales decline by more than 17% year over year.
Why it matters: Quest was the strongest brand in FY2026, with sales up 0.7%. A drop in takeaway would weaken this offset to declines at Atkins and OWYN.
Worry ifQuest retail takeaway falls below 0% year over year in a reported quarter.
Less concerning ifQuest retail takeaway stays above 0% year over year in the next reported quarter.
Why it matters: Management expects a steep sales drop in Q1. A smaller drop would be an early sign that the decline is easing.
Watch forQ1 FY2027 net sales decline by less than 19% year over year.
Also watch forQ1 FY2027 net sales decline by more than 22% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$169 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $477 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,593 loss on $10,000 · 55.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.