Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$11.45-0.35%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SMPL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -30.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -3.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 26.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 29 industry peers
SMPL — President transition
Dated 2026-04-21
Senior Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer — Amy Held: Ms. Amy Held will depart the Company by June 1, 2026.
Why it matters: More impairment charges would show ongoing issues with brand performance. This could affect future profits.
Worry ifThe company says it will take more charges for brand assets.
Less concerning ifNo new impairment charges are reported.
Why it matters: A drop in gross margin will hurt profits. It is important to watch costs.
Worry ifGross margin drops more than the current mixed status shows.
Less concerning ifGross margin stays the same or gets better.
Why it matters: Atkins sales are very important for overall performance. Ongoing drops could mean bigger problems for the brand.
Worry ifAtkins brand sales decline more than 24% year over year for two consecutive quarters.
Less concerning ifAtkins brand sales stabilize or grow year over year.
Why it matters: This shows a drop of 38% to 32% from last year. It shows ongoing challenges.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is within the guidance range of $46 to $50 million.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA is over $50 million. This shows better performance.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$185 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $449 loss on $10,000 · 4.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,422 loss on $10,000 · 64.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This guidance shows how the company is handling its revenue drop. Better guidance may mean a turnaround.
Watch forQ4 net sales guidance is above $332 million. This shows stronger performance than expected.
Also watch forQ4 net sales guidance is below $322 million. This confirms ongoing revenue issues.
Why it matters: A smaller decline in net sales would show improvement in the company's performance. This could indicate a turnaround in sales trends for key brands.
Supportive ifQ4 2026 net sales decline less than -10% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ4 2026 net sales decline worse than -14% year-over-year.
Why it matters: The revenue guidance will show if the company can grow despite challenges. It is a key measure of performance.
Watch forManagement raises revenue guidance. This is better than the current mixed status.
Also watch forManagement lowers revenue guidance or keeps it the same.
Why it matters: A new president could change company direction. This may affect performance and investor confidence.
Watch forThe new president will share new plans in the next three months.
Also watch forNo new initiatives or clear direction from the new president after three months.
Why it matters: If revenue growth improves, it may signal a positive shift in the market. This could help Simply Good Foods stand out in a slow-growing sector.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth stays below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: If Atkins sales go up, it means their plans are working. It also shows that investing in the brand is paying off.
Supportive ifAtkins brand sales show growth of 5% or more in the next quarter.
Worry ifIf Atkins brand sales drop more, it shows turnaround efforts are not working.
Why it matters: This guidance reflects ongoing challenges. It will show if the company can stabilize sales.
Worry ifNet sales for Q4 were $322 million or less. This shows a continued decline.
Less concerning ifNet sales are over $332 million. This shows better performance than expected.
Why it matters: This guidance shows how well the company manages costs amid declining sales.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was below $52 million. This shows deeper issues.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA is over $57 million. This shows good cost management.
Why it matters: A big drop in gross margin shows cost pressures. This affects profitability.
Worry ifGross margin dropped by 375 basis points or more. This confirms challenges.
Less concerning ifGross margin dropped less than 375 basis points. This shows better cost control.