Nuscale Power Corp (SMR)
NYSEIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$9.70-0.51%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — earnings per share (EPS): FY27 EPS -$0.72 vs >-$0.69 target.
NuScale leads in modular nuclear power with new training centers and global partnerships. The TVA-ENTRA1 project is a strong growth catalyst. Analysts expect revenue to improve from $56M in 2026 to $173M in 2027. Leadership in nuclear training and expanding projects support future growth.
The company is loss-making with negative EPS expected through 2027. Revenue is forecasted to decline sharply by 60% next year. Competition and market headwinds challenge growth. The recent 35.8% stock drop reflects these risks.
The market prices in about a 60% revenue decline and a 31% discount to consensus price estimates. Our view sees potential for revenue growth from $56M in 2026 to $173M in 2027, differing from the negative growth priced in.
Breaks if: no new training centers or partnership progress announced in next 4 quarters
Breaks if: EPS worsens beyond -$0.69 in FY27
annual revenue growth falls below 0% in FY27
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a high-risk scenario with a focus on the industrials sector. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent financial performance has been weak and management's priorities show mixed results.
The market appears to be pricing in a significant expectations gap, indicating that investors may not fully recognize the challenges SMR faces. Valuation suggests a premium compared to peers, reflecting the optionality in its business model despite being loss-making.
Fundamentals are likely to remain under pressure in the near term due to weak recent performance and high operating cash outflows. Management's focus on advancing technology and maintaining liquidity indicates a strategic approach, but execution risks remain high.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like ETN, VRT, and BE, as their earnings results could influence SMR's trajectory. Additionally, inflation trends and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions will be critical factors to monitor.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'cautious' to 'restrictive'.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The company advanced the commercial deployment of its power modules. It also improved the technological readiness and design maturity of these modules. There are no new threats to the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
In the next 1 to 3 years, SMR faces significant challenges but is positioned to potentially benefit from sector momentum if conditions improve. Not investment advice.