Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
SMITH MICRO SOFTWARE INC (SMSI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.29-1.29%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SMSI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross profit improves | Gross profit also grew from $3.04M to $3.31M. | Improving | Gross profit falls below $3.04M | Gross profit: $3.53M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Gross profit >= $3.31M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 14, 20263,530,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative turnaround-style business, not a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: recent performance is weak relative to its industry cohort, and management execution has been volatile.
The valuation model describes SMSI as cheap versus peers, but confidence in that comparison is low. The expectations gap is negative, while the priced-in assessment is tagged as justified and shows low fragility, suggesting the evidence does not establish that expectations are unusually pessimistic.
Near term, revenue and gross profit improved modestly from the first to the second quarter of 2026, but the company remains loss-making and recent financial performance is weak. Management says it is focused on growth and sustainable profitability, but the next results carry risk given the history of misses; a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback. Capital raising supports operations, while the recent M&A-related activity has not yet shown a direct financial contribution.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on continued revenue growth translating into sustainable profitability, and on management delivering after a CEO transition. A guidance cut would weaken the case; steadier execution would help clarify whether recent progress can last. Fed rate cuts or stabilization among large technology companies could support the sector backdrop, but neither would resolve SMSI’s company-specific execution risks.
For the next 1 to 3 years, SMSI remains a high-risk, loss-making recovery case with early signs of sequential progress but no clear proof of durable improvement. The long-term thesis depends on stronger execution and a path to sustainable profitability. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in SMITH MICRO SOFTWARE INC's published investment case. The stated target is Operating income >= -$3.37M. |
| Broken |
| Operating income falls below -$14.95M |
Operating income: $-2.369M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= -$3.37M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 14, 2026-2,369,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth continues | A primary condition in SMITH MICRO SOFTWARE INC's published investment case. The stated target is Revenue >= $4.22M. | Intact | Revenue falls below $3.98M | Revenue: $4.341M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Revenue >= $4.22M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 14, 20264,341,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.00 → $-0.42 · observed estimates
$0.03B → $0.03B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.00 | $30,650,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.00 | $30,650,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.00 | $30,650,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.00 | $30,650,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.45 | $30,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.45 | $30,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.45 | $30,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.45 | $30,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.45 | $30,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.00 | $30,650,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.45 | $30,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.00 | $30,650,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.00 | $30,650,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.00 | $30,650,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.00 | $30,650,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.00 | $30,650,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.00 | $30,650,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.45 | $30,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.45 | $30,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.45 | $30,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.45 | $30,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.45 | $30,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.45 | $30,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.45 | $30,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.45 | $30,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.42 | $30,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.