SMITH MICRO SOFTWARE INC (SMSI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.85-0.70%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SMSI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -76.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 57.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 133.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SMSI — capital allocation — Forward-Looking Statements This Current Report on Form 8-K and the press rele…
Dated 2026-06-12
Forward-Looking Statements This Current Report on Form 8-K and the press release contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of U.S. federal securities laws. Such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements regarding the expectations, hopes, beliefs, intentions, plans, prospects, or strategies of the Company. Any statements contained herein that are not statements of historical fact may be deemed to be forward-looking statements. In addition, any statement…
Why it matters: Revenue growth is crucial for the company's turnaround. Exceeding $4.5 million shows progress.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue was over $4.5 million. This shows strong customer engagement and focus.
Worry ifQ2 revenue is under $4.2 million. This shows ongoing growth challenges.
Why it matters: New customer launches could signal strong demand for Smith Micro's products and growth potential.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least two new customer launches in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo new customer launches announced by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Lower operating costs can raise profits. It also shows better control of expenses.
Supportive ifOperating expenses in Q3 2026 are lower than in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating expenses in Q3 2026 are higher than in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: M&A news could change growth plans and market position for Smith Micro.
Watch forAnnouncement of a significant M&A deal or partnership in Q3 2026.
Also watch forNo M&A updates or activity reported by the end of Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$195 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $633 loss on $10,000 · 6.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,153 loss on $10,000 · 51.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Updates can show the company's plans and priorities.
Watch forPositive news or plans from CEO Timothy Huffmyer.
Also watch forNo updates or bad news about leadership plans.
Why it matters: Changes in cash will show financial health and ability to run operations.
Worry ifCash and cash equivalents increase above $2.8 million by the next earnings report.
Less concerning ifCash and cash equivalents decrease below $2.8 million.
Why it matters: Getting new contracts is important. It helps drive revenue growth and operational efficiency.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of new business contracts closed by the end of Q2.
Worry ifNo new contracts were announced by the end of Q2. This shows possible sales issues.
Why it matters: New customer launches would confirm the company's growth strategy is working. This could lead to higher revenue.
Supportive ifAt least two new customers are using Smith Micro's solutions.
Worry ifNo new customer launches announced in Q3.
Why it matters: If revenue goes above this amount, it shows positive growth.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported above $4.3 million.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $4.3 million.
Why it matters: A smaller loss means better cost control and efficiency.
Supportive ifQ3 operating loss was less than $2.4 million.
Worry ifQ3 operating loss was more than $2.4 million.