SMITH MICRO SOFTWARE INC (SMSI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.32-0.43%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SMSI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -81.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 67.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 149.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 36 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SMSI — CEO transition
Dated 2026-09-18
CEO — William W. Smith, Jr.: The CEO resigned to pursue other opportunities but was immediately succeeded by the long-serving Executive Chairman, representing an orderly internal succession rather than a loss of leadership.
Why it matters: Management said two new customers were ready to launch soon. A launch would test whether the pipeline can add revenue.
Supportive ifThe company names both new customers as launched or reports revenue from both.
Worry ifThe next results report neither launch, or management says either launch was delayed.
Why it matters: Bill Smith became CEO after Tim Huffmyer left. The next results can show whether the stated growth plan stays on track.
Watch forThe next results show revenue above $4.3 million and report progress on the new products or customer launches.
Also watch forThe next results show revenue of $4.3 million or less. They also show delays to product releases or customer launches.
Why it matters: Cash was $2.8 million at the end of Q2, while the company still reported a net loss. A drop would raise pressure to fund operations.
Worry ifA quarter-end report shows cash below $2 million.
Less concerning ifCash stays at or above $2.8 million without a new capital raise.
Why it matters: Q2 revenue rose to $4.3 million from $4.2 million in Q1. Another rise would extend the company’s run of sequential growth.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue is above $4.3 million, extending sequential growth from Q2.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is $4.3 million or less, ending the recent rise.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$138 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $624 loss on $10,000 · 6.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,011 loss on $10,000 · 50.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Q2 gross margin was 81.3%, up from 78.4% in Q1. Staying above 81% would keep that gain in place.
Supportive ifQ3 gross profit as a share of revenue is above 81%.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin is below 78.4%, falling under the Q1 level.