Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
SharkNinja (SN)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$219.25+4.11%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.59 → 7.61 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS reaches at least $6.0 in 2026 | A primary condition in SharkNinja's published investment case. The stated target is >= $6.0 per share. | Intact | EPS falls below $6.0 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $2.39 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $6.0 per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20262.39 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
SN is a growth-focused business whose recent results show strong financial performance, rather than a turnaround story. Its long-term thesis is intact and has recently shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, though confidence in the evidence is medium.
SN is valued at a notable premium to peers, and the valuation model has low confidence. The market appears to assume continued growth and improved earnings, while the evidence does not indicate high fragility in that outlook.
Near term, results are mixed: sales grew strongly and fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings-per-share guidance was raised, but SN missed its most recent quarter and has a run of consecutive earnings misses. Management's growth and investment plans are partly on track, with capital spending guidance maintained; execution remains important.
A key risk is whether management can sustain its raised guidance, since reversing it could hurt credibility as well as signal weaker results. Over the near term, sector bellwethers SGI, MHK, and PATK offer clues: continued strong results could support sector momentum, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SN’s thesis rests on turning strong sales growth and higher earnings guidance into consistent delivery. The premium valuation makes execution and sector conditions especially relevant. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company launches new products like espresso machines to drive growth. |
| Intact |
| New product launches fail to increase sales or gain market share |
18.5% growth vs sustained growth target SharkNinja beat Q3 earnings, raised FY26 sales growth guidance to 18-19%, and analysts cite product expansion as key driver. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches at least $1.29 billion in 2026 | A primary condition in SharkNinja's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.29 billion. | Intact | Revenue falls below $1.29 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $1.976B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.29 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20261,976,427,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Valuation premium justified by growth and margins | A supporting condition in SharkNinja's published investment case. The stated target is P/E ratio justified by >=10% growth and stable margins. | Under Pressure | Growth falls below 6% or margins compress causing valuation contraction | P/E (TTM): 34.58x As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 202634.582 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.10 → $7.61 · observed estimates
$8.05B → $8.51B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.10 | $8,048,588,170 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.10 | $8,048,588,170 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.09 | $8,053,937,098 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.11 | $8,053,972,780 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.09 | $8,053,937,098 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $7.11 | $8,055,695,860 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.11 | $8,055,695,860 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-07-31 | $7.11 | $8,062,821,713 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.11 | $8,062,821,713 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.13 | $8,066,394,320 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.12 | $8,066,358,636 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.12 | $8,066,358,636 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.12 | $8,066,358,636 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.12 | $8,066,358,636 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.32 | $8,265,371,042 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.47 | $8,332,289,909 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.47 | $8,332,289,909 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-12 | $7.32 | $8,265,371,042 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.32 | $8,265,371,042 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.32 | $8,265,371,042 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.32 | $8,265,371,042 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.32 | $8,265,371,042 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.32 | $8,265,371,042 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.32 | $8,265,371,042 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.32 | $8,265,371,042 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-20 | $7.54 | $8,453,790,401 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-21 | $7.54 | $8,453,790,401 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | $7.54 | $8,453,790,401 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | $7.54 | $8,453,790,401 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-24 | $7.54 | $8,453,790,401 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | $7.54 | $8,453,790,401 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-26 | $7.54 | $8,453,790,401 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-27 | $7.54 | $8,453,790,401 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-28 | $7.54 | $8,453,790,401 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-29 | $7.54 | $8,453,790,401 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-30 | $7.54 | $8,453,790,401 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-31 | $7.54 | $8,453,790,401 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-01 | $7.54 | $8,453,790,401 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-02 | $7.54 | $8,453,790,401 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-21 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-22 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-23 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-24 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-25 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-26 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.59 | $8,478,244,247 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.60 | $8,488,535,464 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $7.61 | $8,499,591,079 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $7.61 | $8,499,591,079 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $7.61 | $8,499,591,079 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $7.61 | $8,499,591,079 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $7.61 | $8,499,591,079 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $7.61 | $8,499,591,079 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $7.61 | $8,499,591,079 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $7.61 | $8,507,744,925 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $7.61 | $8,507,744,925 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $7.61 | $8,507,744,925 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $7.61 | $8,507,744,925 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $7.61 | $8,507,744,925 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $7.61 | $8,507,744,925 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $7.61 | $8,510,813,145 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $7.61 | $8,510,813,145 | 8 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.