Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-07-03 · fmp
Sandisk (SNDK)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1037.40-7.91%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
260.93 → 291.90 EPS · FY ending Jul 3, 2028 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SNDK yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Datacenter revenue grows at least 100% sequentially | Sandisk is growing fast with datacenter revenue up 233% sequentially in Q3 2026. | Broken | sequential datacenter revenue growth falls below 100% in Q4 2026 | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate segment_revenue_yoy_pct from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-07-03 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth investment, with recent financial performance still strong relative to its industry. The long-term thesis is intact, but momentum weakened after the latest earnings report, so confidence in the near-term setup is more limited.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure points to SNDK being cheap versus peers, while another shows a 53% premium and the overall value assessment is expensive. The negative expectations gap suggests the market’s assumptions leave little room for disappointment, though the priced-in assessment is labeled justified and fragility is low.
Near-term results may remain uneven: the company missed its most recent quarter, and company momentum and composite insight both fell after the report. Over the multi-year view, Datacenter revenue rose from $2,977 million in the second quarter of 2026 to $4,802 million in the third, supporting management’s stated growth priority; management also reported five additional customer agreements, but their revenue contribution is not isolated.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, especially given the recent miss and history of erratic earnings surprises. The favorable case depends partly on lower interest rates and stabilization among tech peers, while the longer-term case depends on continued Datacenter growth and progress with customer agreements.
For the next 1 to 3 years, SNDK’s long-term thesis has support from strong recent financial performance and Datacenter growth, but the latest miss, expensive overall valuation assessment, and high risk leave execution as the central uncertainty. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company expects revenue near $8 billion and EPS around $31.5 next quarter. |
| Under Pressure |
| reported EPS falls below $30.0 in Q4 2026 |
Diluted EPS: $52.60 per share FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: ~$31.5. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 30, 202652.6 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Progress on $6 billion share repurchase program | It has a $6 billion share buyback program supporting shareholder value. | Intact | Buyback program is suspended or materially delayed | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Total revenue near $8 billion next quarter | The company expects revenue near $8 billion and EPS around $31.5 next quarter. | Under Pressure | reported revenue falls below $7.75B in Q4 2026 | Revenue: $11.031B FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: ~$8B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 30, 202611,031,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$262.39 → $291.90 · observed estimates
$58.23B → $61.13B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | $262.39 | $58,233,222,518 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-09 | $262.39 | $58,233,222,518 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-10 | $262.39 | $58,233,222,518 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-12 | $262.39 | $58,233,222,518 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $262.39 | $58,233,222,518 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-14 | $262.39 | $58,233,222,518 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-15 | $262.39 | $58,233,222,518 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-16 | $262.39 | $58,233,222,518 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-17 | $262.39 | $58,233,222,518 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-18 | $262.39 | $58,233,222,518 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-19 | $262.39 | $58,233,222,518 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-20 | $256.55 | $57,345,764,770 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-21 | $256.55 | $57,345,764,770 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-22 | $256.55 | $57,345,764,770 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-23 | $256.55 | $57,345,764,770 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-24 | $256.55 | $57,345,764,770 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-25 | $256.55 | $57,345,765,318 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-26 | $256.55 | $57,345,765,318 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-27 | $256.55 | $57,345,765,318 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-28 | $256.55 | $57,345,765,318 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-29 | $258.23 | $57,685,903,951 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-30 | $258.23 | $57,685,903,951 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-31 | $258.23 | $57,685,903,951 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-01 | $258.23 | $57,685,903,951 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-02 | $260.64 | $58,230,278,951 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-03 | $260.64 | $58,230,278,951 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-04 | $263.65 | $58,740,160,644 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-05 | $263.65 | $58,740,160,644 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-06 | $260.58 | $58,077,086,958 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-07 | $260.58 | $58,077,086,958 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-08 | $260.58 | $58,077,086,957 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-09 | $260.58 | $58,077,095,653 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-10 | $260.58 | $58,077,095,653 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-11 | $260.58 | $58,077,095,653 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-12 | $260.58 | $58,077,095,653 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-13 | $260.58 | $58,077,095,653 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-14 | $260.58 | $58,077,095,653 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-15 | $261.77 | $58,077,095,653 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-16 | $261.77 | $58,077,095,653 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-17 | $261.77 | $58,077,095,653 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-18 | $261.77 | $58,077,095,653 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-19 | $261.77 | $58,077,095,653 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-20 | $261.76 | $58,077,095,653 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-21 | $261.76 | $58,077,095,653 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-22 | $261.76 | $58,077,095,653 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-23 | $260.93 | $58,157,216,667 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-24 | $260.93 | $58,157,216,667 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-25 | $260.93 | $58,157,216,667 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-26 | $260.93 | $58,157,216,667 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-27 | $260.93 | $58,157,216,667 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-28 | $260.93 | $58,157,216,667 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-29 | $260.93 | $58,157,216,667 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-30 | $260.93 | $58,157,216,667 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-01 | $260.93 | $58,157,208,334 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-02 | $260.93 | $58,157,208,334 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-03 | $260.93 | $58,157,208,334 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-04 | $260.93 | $58,157,208,334 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-05 | $260.93 | $58,157,208,334 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-06 | $260.93 | $58,157,208,334 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-07 | $260.93 | $58,157,208,334 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-08 | $260.93 | $58,157,208,334 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-09 | $261.78 | $58,284,464,922 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-10 | $261.78 | $58,284,464,922 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-11 | $261.78 | $58,284,464,922 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-12 | $261.78 | $58,284,464,922 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-13 | $261.78 | $58,284,464,922 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-14 | $261.78 | $58,284,464,922 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-15 | $261.78 | $58,284,464,922 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-16 | $261.78 | $58,284,464,922 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-17 | $261.78 | $58,284,464,922 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-18 | $263.34 | $58,515,964,922 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-19 | $263.34 | $58,515,964,922 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-20 | $263.34 | $58,515,964,397 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-21 | $263.34 | $58,515,964,397 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-22 | $263.34 | $58,515,964,397 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-23 | $263.34 | $58,515,964,397 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-24 | $263.34 | $58,515,964,397 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-25 | $263.34 | $58,515,964,397 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-26 | $263.34 | $58,515,964,397 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-27 | $263.34 | $58,515,964,397 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-28 | $266.94 | $59,243,422,730 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-29 | $267.11 | $59,243,422,730 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-30 | $267.53 | $59,248,973,043 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-31 | $292.34 | $61,522,008,853 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-11-01 | $290.77 | $61,100,425,519 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-11-02 | $290.77 | $61,100,425,519 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-11-03 | $292.65 | $61,257,628,261 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-11-04 | $291.90 | $61,128,586,595 | 11 / 15 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 21 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 8 recorded
1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.