Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
SNOWFLAKE INC. (SNOW)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$290.60-1.50%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.02 → 3.02 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 27 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 27 to 27; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SNOW yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Free cash flow margin improves to at least 23% in FY27 | A supporting condition in SNOWFLAKE INC.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= 23%. | Intact | Free cash flow margin falls below 15% in FY27 | Free cash flow: $83.803M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 23%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 4, 202683,803,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth business, with a long-term thesis tied to expanding product revenue and AI use. The thesis is on watch: management is progressing on growth priorities, while recent financial performance trails its industry cohort.
SNOW is valued at a 5.12 premium versus peers, and the expectations gap is close to neutral. The valuation is tagged as justified, but model confidence is low, so the degree to which the premium is supported remains uncertain.
Near term, product revenue grew 37% year over year in 2026-Q3, and AI-related accounts rose to more than 9,100. Operating margin improved, though progress on operating margin and free cash flow is mixed; recent company momentum also fell, and performance remains weak versus peers. A guidance cut is a meaningful risk, despite the stated low near-term miss risk.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued AI adoption and revenue growth alongside better operating discipline. A guidance cut would weaken the setup, while rate cuts or stabilization among major tech peers could ease sector pressure. Recent debt and equity-related filings add context, but the snapshot gives limited detail on their business impact.
For the 1-3 year view, SNOW has credible growth drivers, but execution, peer-relative performance, and elevated risk leave the thesis conditional. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Gross margin stays high near 75%. |
| Broken |
| Gross margin falls below 70% in FY27 |
Gross margin: 67.02% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~75%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 4, 202667.023706 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating margin improves to at least 13.5% in FY27 | Profit margins improve with operating margin guidance raised to 13.5%. | Improving | Operating margin falls below 10% in FY27 | Operating margin: -17% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 13.5%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 4, 2026-17.000788 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Product revenue grows to at least $5.84B in FY27 | Snowflake grows product revenue about 31% yearly to $5.84 billion. | Intact | Product revenue falls below $5.0 billion in FY27 | Product revenue: $1.492B FY2027-Q2; reported segment. Published target: >= $5.84 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 4, 20261,491,861,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.72 → $3.02 · observed estimates
$7.66B → $8.16B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.72 | $7,660,802,724 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.72 | $7,660,802,724 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.72 | $7,660,802,724 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.72 | $7,660,802,724 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.72 | $7,660,802,724 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.72 | $7,660,802,724 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.72 | $7,660,802,724 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.73 | $7,668,710,528 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.73 | $7,668,710,528 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.73 | $7,668,710,528 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.73 | $7,668,710,528 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.73 | $7,668,710,528 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.73 | $7,668,710,528 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.73 | $7,668,710,528 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.73 | $7,668,710,528 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.73 | $7,668,710,528 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.73 | $7,668,710,528 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.73 | $7,668,710,528 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.73 | $7,668,710,528 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.73 | $7,668,710,528 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.73 | $7,668,710,528 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.73 | $7,668,710,528 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.73 | $7,668,710,528 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.73 | $7,668,710,528 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.73 | $7,668,710,528 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.73 | $7,673,047,090 | 28 / 37 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.73 | $7,673,047,090 | 28 / 37 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.73 | $7,673,047,090 | 28 / 37 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.75 | $7,683,821,933 | 28 / 37 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.75 | $7,683,821,933 | 28 / 37 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.75 | $7,683,854,899 | 28 / 36 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.75 | $7,691,393,965 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.75 | $7,691,393,965 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.75 | $7,691,393,965 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.75 | $7,691,393,965 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.75 | $7,691,393,965 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.75 | $7,691,393,965 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.75 | $7,691,393,965 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.73 | $7,683,638,010 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.90 | $7,971,186,657 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.98 | $8,103,545,192 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.00 | $8,130,122,459 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.00 | $8,130,122,459 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.00 | $8,130,122,459 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.00 | $8,130,122,459 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.00 | $8,130,122,459 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.00 | $8,130,122,459 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.02 | $8,145,421,647 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.02 | $8,145,421,647 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.02 | $8,145,421,647 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.02 | $8,145,421,647 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.02 | $8,145,426,787 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.02 | $8,145,426,787 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.02 | $8,152,569,645 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.02 | $8,152,569,645 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.02 | $8,152,569,645 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.02 | $8,156,370,350 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.02 | $8,156,370,860 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.02 | $8,156,370,860 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.02 | $8,156,370,860 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.02 | $8,156,370,860 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.02 | $8,156,370,860 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.02 | $8,156,370,860 | 26 / 36 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.02 | $8,156,370,860 | 26 / 35 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.02 | $8,156,370,860 | 26 / 35 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.02 | $8,155,362,431 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.02 | $8,155,362,431 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.02 | $8,155,351,893 | 27 / 37 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.02 | $8,155,351,893 | 27 / 37 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.02 | $8,155,351,876 | 27 / 37 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.02 | $8,155,351,876 | 27 / 37 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.02 | $8,155,351,876 | 27 / 37 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.02 | $8,155,351,876 | 27 / 37 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.02 | $8,155,351,876 | 27 / 37 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.02 | $8,155,351,876 | 27 / 37 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.02 | $8,155,351,876 | 27 / 37 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.02 | $8,155,351,876 | 27 / 37 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.02 | $8,155,351,876 | 27 / 37 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.02 | $8,155,351,876 | 27 / 37 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.02 | $8,155,351,872 | 27 / 37 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.02 | $8,155,351,872 | 27 / 37 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.02 | $8,155,351,872 | 27 / 37 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.02 | $8,155,351,745 | 27 / 37 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.02 | $8,155,351,745 | 27 / 37 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.03 | $8,156,842,654 | 27 / 37 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.03 | $8,156,842,654 | 27 / 37 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.02 | $8,156,842,654 | 27 / 37 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.02 | $8,156,842,229 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.02 | $8,156,842,229 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.02 | $8,156,842,229 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.02 | $8,156,842,229 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.02 | $8,156,842,229 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.02 | $8,156,842,229 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.02 | $8,156,842,229 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.02 | $8,156,842,229 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.02 | $8,156,842,229 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.02 | $8,156,842,229 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.02 | $8,156,842,229 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.02 | $8,156,842,229 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.02 | $8,156,842,229 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.02 | $8,156,842,229 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.02 | $8,156,842,229 | 27 / 36 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 46 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Dec 2, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.