SNOWFLAKE INC. (SNOW)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$337.18-5.41%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SNOW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 66.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 40.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 26.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SNOW — CEO transition
Dated 2026-07-16
The filing describes a compensatory arrangement for the CEO, not a management change.
Why it matters: This acquisition could improve Snowflake's AI skills. It may also strengthen its market position.
Supportive ifThe Natoma deal is done. This will improve Snowflake's AI products.
Worry ifThe Natoma deal is delayed or canceled. This may mean there are integration issues.
Why it matters: Slower customer growth may mean less demand for Snowflake's services.
Worry ifNew customer growth is below 30% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifCustomer growth is at or above 38% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this guidance shows strong demand and growth momentum for Snowflake.
Supportive ifQ2 product revenue was $1,420 million or more. This shows strong growth.
Worry ifQ2 product revenue was below $1,415 million. This suggests demand is weakening.
Why it matters: Adding many new customers shows strong demand for Snowflake's services. This is key for growth.
Supportive ifSnowflake adds over 600 new customers in the next quarter.
Worry ifNew customer additions fall below 600.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$161 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $520 loss on $10,000 · 5.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,630 loss on $10,000 · 56.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More use of AI products can boost revenue and help Snowflake's market position.
Supportive ifAccounts using Snowflake AI tools are over 13,600.
Worry ifAccounts using Snowflake AI tools are still below 10,000.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Snowflake continues to beat expectations and grow.
Watch forEarnings beat expectations with revenue growth above 31% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings miss expectations with revenue growth below 31% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in sector growth could impact Snowflake's performance and outlook.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median, indicating a slowdown.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth stays above its median. This supports ongoing expansion.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth picks up, it could benefit Snowflake's performance. This is key for future growth.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth speeds up to over 4% year-over-year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth stays below 4% from last year.
Why it matters: Better margins show improved cost management. This means the company is more efficient.
Supportive ifOperating margin was 13.5% or higher. This shows good cost management.
Worry ifOperating margin was below 12.5%. This shows challenges in managing costs.
Why it matters: Adding new customers shows the company can attract and keep clients. This is key for growth.
Supportive ifNet new customers added in Q2 exceeds 616, showing strong growth.
Worry ifNet new customers added in Q2 falls below 500.
Why it matters: This growth range confirms ongoing strength in Snowflake's AI-driven revenue momentum. A miss could signal slowing demand.
Supportive ifQ3 product revenue grew by 37% to 38% compared to last year.
Worry ifQ3 product revenue growth falls below 37% year-over-year.
Why it matters: A high retention rate means customers are spending more. A drop may show they are unhappy.
Supportive ifNet revenue retention rate remains above 125% for the next quarter.
Worry ifNet revenue retention rate drops below 125%.
Why it matters: More high-value customers means strong demand for Snowflake's services. Fewer customers may mean market problems.
Supportive ifThe number of customers with over $1 million in product revenue rose from 828.
Worry ifThe number of customers with over $1 million in product revenue fell from 828.
Why it matters: Better margins mean improved cost management and profit. A drop may raise worries about efficiency.
Supportive ifThe non-GAAP operating margin is 15.5% or more.
Worry ifThe non-GAAP operating margin is less than 15.5%.