Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas DrillingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.98-20.16%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas DrillingSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.86 → 1.14 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SOC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital expenditure near $180 million by 2026 year-end | Capital spending is set near $180 million this year. | Broken | capex exceeds $200 million or falls below $150 million in 2026 | Capital expenditures: $31.509M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$180 million. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Aug 10, 202631,509,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
SOC is a high-risk, loss-making energy business rather than an established compounder. Its multi-year view is in a watch state: recent performance has lagged its industry cohort, and confidence in the evidence is low.
The valuation model indicates a 2.27 premium versus peers, though confidence in that estimate is low. The evidence points to a durable premium, while the priced-in fragility assessment says sector turbulence is the main concern, not a combined stack of expensive valuation, weak results, and turbulence.
Near term, the risk of another earnings miss is elevated after recent misses, and a guidance cut would add pressure to the business outlook. Management completed the loan refinancing, but Platform Hondo is delayed and capex plans have shifted, so execution remains mixed.
Over the next several quarters, the thesis hinges on whether SOC brings Platform Hondo online as expected and manages spending while improving financial performance. Sector bellwethers NE, VAL, and PTEN are also important signals: continued earnings strength could sustain the Energy tailwind, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
For the next 1 to 3 years, SOC presents a high-risk, loss-making setup with some management progress but weak results, mixed execution, and low-confidence evidence. The thesis depends on operational delivery and whether the Energy sector tailwind persists. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Sable Offshore Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=50,000 barrels per day. |
| Intact |
| sales volume below 50,000 barrels/day by 2026-04-01 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Platform Hondo online at >10,000 barrels/day by 2026-Q2 | Sable Offshore plans to start Platform Hondo by mid-2026. | Intact | daily production falls below 10,000 barrels by 2026-Q2 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.54 → $1.14 · observed estimates
$1.01B → $0.91B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.54 | $1,009,031,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.54 | $1,009,031,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.54 | $1,009,031,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.54 | $1,009,031,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.89 | $1,042,379,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.54 | $1,009,031,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.54 | $1,009,031,600 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.54 | $1,009,031,600 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.54 | $1,009,031,600 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.89 | $1,042,379,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.89 | $1,042,379,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.89 | $1,042,379,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.89 | $1,042,379,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.54 | $1,009,031,600 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.89 | $1,042,379,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.54 | $1,009,031,600 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.54 | $1,009,031,600 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.54 | $1,009,031,600 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.54 | $1,009,031,600 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.54 | $1,009,031,600 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.54 | $1,009,031,600 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.54 | $1,009,031,600 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.54 | $1,009,031,600 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.54 | $1,009,031,600 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.54 | $1,009,031,600 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.70 | $890,035,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.71 | $890,035,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.71 | $890,035,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.71 | $890,035,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.71 | $890,035,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.71 | $890,035,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.71 | $890,035,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.71 | $890,035,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.71 | $890,035,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.71 | $890,035,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.71 | $890,035,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.71 | $890,035,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.71 | $890,035,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.75 | $886,235,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.75 | $886,235,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.75 | $886,235,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.75 | $886,235,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.75 | $886,235,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.75 | $886,235,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.75 | $886,235,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.75 | $886,235,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.75 | $886,235,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.84 | $886,235,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.84 | $886,235,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.84 | $886,235,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.84 | $886,235,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.84 | $886,235,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.84 | $886,235,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.84 | $886,235,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.84 | $886,235,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.84 | $886,235,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.84 | $886,235,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.84 | $886,235,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.84 | $886,235,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.84 | $886,235,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.84 | $886,235,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.84 | $886,235,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.84 | $886,235,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.84 | $886,235,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.84 | $886,235,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.84 | $886,235,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.82 | $886,235,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.82 | $886,235,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.81 | $881,955,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.86 | $898,795,833 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.86 | $898,795,833 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.86 | $898,795,833 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.86 | $898,795,833 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.84 | $888,539,286 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.84 | $888,539,286 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.84 | $888,539,286 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.84 | $888,539,286 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.89 | $888,539,286 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.89 | $888,539,286 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.89 | $888,539,286 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.89 | $888,539,286 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.94 | $888,539,286 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.14 | $907,539,286 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.14 | $907,539,286 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.14 | $907,539,286 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.14 | $907,539,286 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.14 | $907,539,286 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.14 | $907,539,286 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.14 | $907,575,434 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.14 | $907,575,434 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.14 | $907,575,434 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.14 | $907,575,434 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.14 | $907,575,434 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.14 | $907,575,434 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.14 | $907,575,434 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.14 | $907,575,434 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.14 | $907,575,434 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.14 | $907,575,434 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.14 | $907,575,434 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.14 | $907,575,434 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.14 | $907,575,434 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.14 | $907,575,434 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.