Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas DrillingSnapshot 2026-11-05
$1.82-8.08%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas DrillingSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SOC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -79.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 2 industry peers
SOC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-10
and Item 7.01, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that Section and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing made by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act. Forward-Looking Statements This Current Report on Form 8-K (including the Exhibit…
Why it matters: LFC now handles about 80% of Harmony and Heritage capacity. More capacity could cut downtime when Hondo restarts.
Supportive ifSable finishes LFC upgrades before Hondo restarts. It reports it can run all three platforms at full capacity.
Worry ifThe upgrades are not ready before Hondo restarts, or LFC still limits production from the three platforms.
Why it matters: Sales fell short of production when partners limited throughput. Higher sales would show those limits are easing.
Watch forReported gross oil sales rise above the October exit rate of about 45,000 barrels per day by year-end 2026.
Also watch forReported gross oil sales stay at or below about 45,000 barrels per day through year-end, or partner limits persist.
Why it matters: Refineries charged quality cuts on SYU crude. Hondo oil may lower sulfur levels and help Sable get better terms.
Supportive ifAfter Hondo restarts, Sable reports less sulfur in the field. Refineries make smaller quality cuts to SYU crude.
Worry ifAfter Hondo restarts, refineries still charge quality cuts, or sulfur levels in the field do not fall.
Why it matters: The sales range tests the restart, LFC capacity, and partner access to market. Missing it would point to ongoing limits.
Watch forQ3 results show net daily sales within or above the 2H 2026 range of 40,000–45,000 barrels per day.
Also watch forQ3 net daily sales fall below 40,000 barrels per day, the low end of 2H 2026 guidance.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$378 on $10,000 · ±3.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,141 loss on $10,000 · 11.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $9,014 loss on $10,000 · 90.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Hondo’s restart adds oil sales, but it needs final review and safety tests first. A delay would push back the production ramp.
Watch forThe MMA approves Hondo’s safety submission, tests finish, and the platform restarts in Q4 2026.
Also watch forMMA approval or safety tests are still incomplete, or Hondo does not restart by year-end 2026.
Why it matters: Sable has a costly loan and weak current signals for cash generation. Higher operating costs could add pressure.
Worry ifQ3 reported lease costs exceed $21 per net barrel, or general and office costs exceed $9 per net barrel.
Less concerning ifBoth costs stay within or below the 2H guidance highs of $21 and $9 per net barrel.