Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas DrillingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.74+0.42%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas DrillingSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SOC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -39.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SOC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-10
and Item 7.01, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that Section and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing made by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act. Forward-Looking Statements This Current Report on Form 8-K (including the Exhibit…
Why it matters: More revenue shows better sales and how well the company runs.
Supportive ifIn Q2 2026, revenue was over $5 million. This shows stronger sales.
Worry ifIn Q2 2026, revenue was below $1 million. This shows ongoing problems.
Why it matters: Successful refinancing would improve financial stability and reduce debt pressure. It is crucial for cash flow.
Supportive ifRefinancing completed with a new loan size of $775 million.
Worry ifRefinancing does not work. It leads to a bigger loan than expected.
Why it matters: Staying below this capex target shows effective cash flow management. It supports financial health.
Supportive ifCapital spending for 2H 2026 is at or below $85 million.
Worry ifCapital spending goes over $85 million in 2H 2026.
Why it matters: Better RFP status may mean more project chances and more money coming in.
Supportive ifManagement says there are more RFPs or a big contract win.
Worry ifManagement says RFP status is weak and there are no new contracts.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$414 on $10,000 · ±4.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,203 loss on $10,000 · 12.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,747 loss on $10,000 · 87.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Starting sales is crucial for revenue generation. Delays could signal deeper issues.
Supportive ifFirst sales occur by April 2026 as planned.
Worry ifSales do not start by April 2026.
Why it matters: Hitting the capex target is important for growth and stability.
Supportive ifCapex reaches or exceeds $180 million by the end of 2026.
Worry ifCapex falls short of $180 million by year-end 2026.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth would signal a shift in the sector's growth phase. This could improve investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth reported above 0% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth remains negative year over year.
Why it matters: Bringing Platform Hondo online will boost production and help meet sales targets.
Supportive ifPlatform Hondo starts production in September 2026 as planned.
Worry ifPlatform Hondo does not come online in September 2026.
Why it matters: Higher capex could indicate aggressive growth plans but may strain cash flow.
Worry ifQ3 spending is over $85 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 spending stays at or below $85 million.
Why it matters: Finishing the perforation work will boost production and help sales grow.
Supportive ifFive new perforations are expected to add 600 barrels per day each.
Worry ifThe new perforations do not add the expected barrels per day.