Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Solventum (SOLV)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$87.18-2.43%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.31 → 7.33 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SOLV yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EPS of $6.40 to $6.60 for 2026 | Adjusted EPS is guided between $6.40 and $6.60, showing solid profit growth. | Intact | adjusted EPS falls below $6.40 in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “2 Full-Year 2026 Guidance Solventum is updating its full year 2026 guidance as follows: • Increased organic sales growth range to +2.5% to +3.0% (+3.5% to +4.0% excluding ~100 bps of SKU exit impact); from prior range of +2.0% to +3.0% • Increased adjusted EPS range to $7.10 to $7.20; from the upper end of prior range of $6.40 to $6.60 • Increased free cash flow to be in the range of $200 million to $300 million; from prior estimate of ~$200M Organic sales, adjusted diluted EPS and free cash flow amounts included in Solventum’s full-year guidance are non-GAAP financial measures.” Operating income was $181.000 million in 2026-Q2. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
SOLV looks like a steady-growth MedTech business with some sensitivity to the broader economy. Its long-term thesis is intact, supported by recent financial performance, though execution and earnings quality are not clearly strong across the board.
The evidence describes SOLV as cheap versus peers, with a small expectations gap and low signs of valuation fragility. That suggests the market is not pricing in unusually high expectations, but confidence in this assessment is medium.
Near term, management’s 2026 adjusted EPS guidance is on track, while organic sales growth was 2.1% in the first quarter and remains guided at 2.0% to 3.0%. The recent earnings beat and stronger sector backdrop help, but weakening jobs data, a prior deep miss, and declining earnings surprises are risks; the planned business separation also remains new and unproven.
The multi-year view depends on SOLV maintaining its guidance and delivering its sales-growth goal, while carrying out the planned separation of Health Information Systems. A guidance cut after the recent increase would damage management credibility, while continued strength from healthcare peers could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SOLV presents an intact but execution-sensitive thesis, with valuation support balanced by economic and credibility risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Free cash flow of approximately $200 million in 2026 | The company targets about $200 million in free cash flow for 2026. | Intact | free cash flow remains negative or below $100 million in FY26 | Free cash flow: $144M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $200 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 2026144,000,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Organic sales growth of 2.0% to 3.0% in 2026 | A primary condition in Solventum's published investment case. The stated target is 2.0% to 3.0% YoY. | Intact | organic sales growth falls below 2.0% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “2 Full-Year 2026 Guidance Solventum is updating its full year 2026 guidance as follows: • Increased organic sales growth range to +2.5% to +3.0% (+3.5% to +4.0% excluding ~100 bps of SKU exit impact); from prior range of +2.0% to +3.0% • Increased adjusted EPS range to $7.10 to $7.20; from the upper end of prior range of $6.40 to $6.60 • Increased free cash flow to be in the range of $200 million to $300 million; from prior estimate of ~$200M Organic sales, adjusted diluted EPS and free cash flow amounts included in Solventum’s full-year guidance are non-GAAP financial measures.” Revenue was $2.209 billion in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 3, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.10 → $7.33 · observed estimates
$8.48B → $8.53B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.10 | $8,478,814,450 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.09 | $8,482,654,790 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.09 | $8,482,654,790 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.10 | $8,478,814,450 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.10 | $8,478,814,450 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $7.09 | $8,484,518,520 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.11 | $8,480,534,823 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $7.11 | $8,480,534,823 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.11 | $8,480,534,823 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.11 | $8,480,534,823 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.11 | $8,480,534,823 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.09 | $8,479,347,870 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.11 | $8,480,534,823 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.11 | $8,480,534,823 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.27 | $8,508,684,099 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.19 | $8,504,904,560 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.27 | $8,508,684,099 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $7.27 | $8,508,684,099 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.27 | $8,508,684,099 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.27 | $8,508,684,099 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.27 | $8,508,684,099 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.27 | $8,508,684,099 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.27 | $8,508,684,099 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.27 | $8,508,684,099 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.27 | $8,508,684,099 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-20 | $7.29 | $8,523,845,568 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-21 | $7.30 | $8,525,055,375 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | $7.30 | $8,525,055,375 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | $7.30 | $8,525,055,375 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-24 | $7.30 | $8,525,055,375 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | $7.30 | $8,525,055,375 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-26 | $7.30 | $8,525,055,275 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-27 | $7.30 | $8,525,055,275 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-28 | $7.30 | $8,525,055,275 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-29 | $7.30 | $8,525,055,275 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-30 | $7.30 | $8,525,055,275 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-31 | $7.30 | $8,525,055,275 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-01 | $7.30 | $8,525,055,275 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-02 | $7.30 | $8,525,055,275 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $7.30 | $8,525,055,275 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $7.30 | $8,525,055,275 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $7.30 | $8,525,055,275 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $7.30 | $8,525,055,275 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $7.30 | $8,525,055,275 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $7.30 | $8,525,055,275 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $7.30 | $8,525,055,275 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $7.30 | $8,525,305,275 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $7.30 | $8,525,305,275 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $7.30 | $8,525,305,275 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $7.30 | $8,525,305,275 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $7.30 | $8,525,305,275 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | $7.30 | $8,525,307,774 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $7.31 | $8,527,891,108 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | $7.31 | $8,527,891,108 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $7.31 | $8,527,891,108 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $7.31 | $8,527,891,108 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $7.30 | $8,534,057,774 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-21 | $7.30 | $8,534,057,774 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-22 | $7.30 | $8,534,057,774 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-23 | $7.31 | $8,532,153,936 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-24 | $7.31 | $8,532,153,936 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-25 | $7.30 | $8,534,057,774 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-26 | $7.30 | $8,534,057,774 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $7.30 | $8,534,057,774 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $7.30 | $8,534,057,774 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $7.30 | $8,534,057,774 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $7.30 | $8,534,057,774 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $7.31 | $8,532,153,936 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $7.31 | $8,532,153,936 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $7.31 | $8,532,153,936 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.31 | $8,532,153,936 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.31 | $8,532,153,936 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.31 | $8,532,153,936 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.31 | $8,532,153,936 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.31 | $8,532,153,936 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $7.31 | $8,532,153,936 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.31 | $8,532,153,936 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.31 | $8,532,153,936 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.34 | $8,534,633,433 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $7.33 | $8,531,251,614 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $7.33 | $8,531,251,614 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.33 | $8,531,251,614 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $7.33 | $8,531,251,614 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $7.33 | $8,531,251,614 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $7.33 | $8,531,251,614 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.33 | $8,531,251,614 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.33 | $8,531,251,614 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $7.33 | $8,531,251,614 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $7.33 | $8,531,251,614 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $7.33 | $8,529,169,796 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $7.33 | $8,529,169,796 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $7.33 | $8,529,169,796 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $7.33 | $8,529,169,796 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $7.33 | $8,529,169,796 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $7.33 | $8,529,169,796 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $7.33 | $8,529,169,796 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $7.33 | $8,529,169,796 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $7.33 | $8,529,169,796 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $7.33 | $8,529,169,796 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $7.33 | $8,529,169,796 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $7.33 | $8,529,169,796 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-11-04 | $7.33 | $8,529,169,796 | 10 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.