Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-27 · fmp
Sonos, Inc. (SONO)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryConsumer ElectronicsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$16.77+5.21%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryConsumer ElectronicsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.83 → 0.83 EPS · FY ending Sep 27, 2028 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SONO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating cash flow at least $97.9 million | A supporting condition in Sonos, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=97.9 million USD. | Improving | Operating cash flow falls below $97.9 million next year | Cash from operations: $46.233M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=97.9 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Jul 29, 202646,233,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-27 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a consumer discretionary business with a recovery and profitability-improvement thesis, rather than a proven steady compounder. The thesis has shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, though its current state remains watch because recent performance has lagged its industry cohort.
SONO trades at a 26% premium to peers, which the evidence attributes to a durable premium, and the valuation signal is labeled justified. The expectations gap is modest at 7%, with medium model confidence and low fragility, so the evidence does not point to unusually stretched expectations.
Near term, revenue growth and profitability have improved: Q3 revenue growth accelerated to 9%, gross margin reached 50.4%, and adjusted EBITDA was positive at $44 million. Cash flow also strengthened, but risk remains elevated, earnings surprises have been erratic, and CFO and COO transitions add uncertainty around execution.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis depends on management sustaining revenue growth, improving profitability, and strengthening cash flow. Near-term sector support depends partly on whether bellwethers such as AMZN, TSLA, and HD keep reporting strong results; materially slower GDP growth could also weigh more heavily on this growth-sensitive sector.
SONO’s fundamentals show meaningful improvement, while its peer premium appears supported by the evidence snapshot. The multi-year view remains watch, with continued execution and the consumer discretionary backdrop as key swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| New COO and CFO bring stable leadership. |
| Under Pressure |
| Leadership turnover or instability occurs |
CFO transition in progress vs stable leadership target CFO retirement and successor search announced July 2026; COO promoted May 2026; 3% job cuts reported June 2026. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Adjusted EBITDA at least $134 million | Profit rose with adjusted EBITDA up $44 million to $134 million. | Improving | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $134 million next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. GAAP gross margin improved from 43.4% in 2025-Q2 to 50.4% in 2026-Q3; operating income rose from -$61.2M to $31.5M; Adjusted EBITDA turned positive and reached $44M in 2026-Q3. Management is delivering improved profitability with disciplined execution. Delivery assessment Oct 27, 2026 |
Revenue grows at least 7.5% year-over-year | A primary condition in Sonos, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=7.5% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 7.5% next year | Revenue growth: 8.85% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=7.5% YoY. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Jul 29, 20268.845471 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $259.8M in 2025-Q2 to $375.3M in 2026-Q3, with growth accelerating from 2% in the first half of 2026 to 9% in Q3. Management's statements and financials show delivering revenue growth with expanding gross margin and profit. Delivery assessment Oct 27, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.83 → $0.83 · observed estimates
$1.77B → $1.77B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | $0.83 | $1,767,188,474 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.83 | $1,767,188,474 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.83 | $1,767,188,474 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.83 | $1,767,188,474 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.83 | $1,767,188,474 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.83 | $1,767,188,474 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.83 | $1,767,188,474 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.83 | $1,767,188,474 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.83 | $1,767,188,474 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.83 | $1,767,188,474 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.83 | $1,767,188,474 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.83 | $1,767,188,474 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.83 | $1,767,188,474 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.83 | $1,767,188,474 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.83 | $1,767,188,474 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.83 | $1,767,188,474 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.83 | $1,767,188,474 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.83 | $1,767,188,474 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.83 | $1,767,188,474 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.83 | $1,767,188,474 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.83 | $1,767,188,474 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.83 | $1,767,188,474 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.83 | $1,767,188,474 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.83 | $1,767,188,474 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.83 | $1,767,188,474 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.83 | $1,767,188,474 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.83 | $1,767,188,474 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.83 | $1,767,188,474 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.83 | $1,767,188,474 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.83 | $1,767,188,474 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.83 | $1,767,188,474 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.83 | $1,767,188,474 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.83 | $1,767,188,474 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.83 | $1,767,188,474 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.83 | $1,767,188,474 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.83 | $1,767,188,474 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.83 | $1,767,188,474 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.83 | $1,767,188,474 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.