Sonos, Inc. (SONO)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryConsumer ElectronicsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$16.77+5.21%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryConsumer ElectronicsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SONO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 20.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 1 industry peers
SONO — CFO transition
Dated 2026-07-29
CFO — Saori Casey: The CFO is retiring and a successor search has been initiated.
Why it matters: Q3 margin was 45.5% after a one-time tariff refund lifted GAAP margin. A higher non-GAAP margin would show gains beyond that refund.
Supportive ifThe Nov. 10 report shows Q4 non-GAAP gross margin above 45.5%.
Worry ifQ4 non-GAAP gross margin is 45.5% or lower.
Why it matters: Q3 free cash flow reached $40 million, and cash rose to $206.9 million. A lower result would weaken the cash-flow progress story.
Supportive ifThe next results show quarterly free cash flow above $40 million.
Worry ifThe next results show quarterly free cash flow below $40 million.
Why it matters: Revenue growth rose from 2% in the first half to 9% in Q3. Another gain would support the growth story.
Supportive ifIn the Nov. 10 report, Q4 revenue is up more than 2% year over year.
Worry ifQ4 revenue is flat or down year over year.
Why it matters: Sonos reported faster revenue growth, while the sector read says revenue is shrinking. Retail sales can show whether that sector backdrop is changing.
Watch forThe Nov. 17 retail sales report shows year-over-year growth, supporting a better demand backdrop.
Also watch forThe Nov. 17 report shows year-over-year retail sales decline, adding to the sector's shrinking revenue signal.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$189 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $474 loss on $10,000 · 4.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,372 loss on $10,000 · 33.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Q3 Adjusted EBITDA rose 24% to $44 million. A higher Q4 result would show that profit growth continued.
Supportive ifThe Nov. 10 report shows Q4 Adjusted EBITDA above $44 million.
Worry ifQ4 Adjusted EBITDA is $44 million or less.