Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$6.13 → $6.19 · observed estimates
Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc. (SPB)
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$91.57+7.72%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.13 → 6.19 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SPB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Approximately 50% conversion of Adjusted EBITDA to Free Cash Flow | Profit margins and cash flow conversion remain solid near 50%. | Intact | Conversion ratio falls below 40% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Adjusted free cash flow framework remains unchanged, and is expected to be approximately 50% of adjusted EBITDA.” “Adjusted free cash flow is expected to be approximately 50% of adjusted EBITDA.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$6.13 → $6.19 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
SPB is a consumer staples business with a moderate-risk, execution-led thesis rather than a clear-cut durable compounder. The thesis is intact, with recent momentum improving, though company quality has weakened and earnings quality remains fragile.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure points to SPB being cheap versus peers, while another shows a 64% premium to peers. The priced-in assessment labels the setup justified, with low fragility, but the negative expectations gap suggests the market's assumptions are not especially forgiving.
Near term, management's fiscal 2026 revenue goal of flat to low single-digit growth appears on track; Q3 revenue rose 7.7% year over year. Cash conversion is mixed, despite Q3 cash flow near the stated target, and the Home and Personal Care partnership is still in its early stages. Earnings surprises have been erratic and are trending down, though the stated miss risk is low.
The multi-year view depends on management sustaining modest revenue growth, improving the reliability of earnings, and making the Home and Personal Care partnership productive. Near term, a guidance cut or further labor-market weakening could weigh on the business backdrop, while continued strong results and guidance from sector peers could support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SPB has a still-intact thesis supported by improving momentum and a supportive sector backdrop, but weaker quality signals and mixed valuation evidence call for attention to execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Strategic $127 million investment in Home and Personal Care business | The strategic $127 million Oaktree investment boosts the Home and Personal Care segment. | Intact | Investment fails to close or deliver growth by end of 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Mr. Maura continued, “on the strategic front, following quarter close, we entered into a partnership with Oaktree Capital Management on our Home & Personal Care business.” “The transaction includes a strategic $127 million cash investment from Oaktree Capital in the form of preferred equity and debt, and we will continue to own approximately 73% of the Appliances business.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Flat to low single-digit revenue growth | Spectrum Brands grows revenue flat to low single digits as guided. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 0% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 7.68% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=0% and <=4% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 20267.675815 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Fiscal 2026 Earnings Framework The Company continues to expect flat to low single digit growth in reported net sales in fiscal 2026.” “Fiscal 2026 Earnings Framework The Company expects to deliver flat to low single digit growth in reported net sales in fiscal 2026.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.92B → $2.93B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $6.13 | $2,924,294,367 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.13 | $2,924,294,367 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.13 | $2,924,294,367 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.13 | $2,924,294,367 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.13 | $2,924,294,367 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.98 | $2,921,661,700 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.98 | $2,921,666,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.98 | $2,921,666,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.98 | $2,921,666,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.98 | $2,921,666,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.98 | $2,921,666,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.98 | $2,921,666,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.98 | $2,921,666,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.98 | $2,921,666,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.98 | $2,921,666,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $6.19 | $2,926,944,634 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $6.19 | $2,926,944,634 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.19 | $2,926,944,634 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.19 | $2,926,944,634 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $6.19 | $2,926,944,634 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.19 | $2,926,944,634 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.19 | $2,926,944,634 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.19 | $2,926,944,634 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.19 | $2,926,944,634 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.19 | $2,926,944,634 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.19 | $2,926,944,634 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.19 | $2,926,944,634 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.19 | $2,926,944,634 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.19 | $2,926,944,634 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.19 | $2,926,944,634 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.19 | $2,926,944,634 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.19 | $2,926,944,634 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.19 | $2,926,944,634 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.19 | $2,926,944,634 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.19 | $2,926,944,634 | 1 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.