Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc. (SPB)
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$88.50+0.10%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SPB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -18.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 18 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
Review the full earnings evidenceWhy it matters: This will confirm if the company can maintain its revenue growth target for fiscal 2026.
Worry ifQ4 net sales growth is flat or increases by low single digits compared to the previous year.
Less concerning ifQ4 net sales growth declines year over year or exceeds a low single-digit increase.
Why it matters: Finishing this project is important for efficiency. It could help the company grow.
Supportive ifThe company says it has finished the ERP project in HPC EMEA.
Worry ifThere are reports of delays in the ERP project or new problems.
Why it matters: Progress on this partnership could signal future growth for the Home and Personal Care segment.
Supportive ifThe company shares good news about growth plans from the partnership.
Worry ifThere is bad news or problems about the partnership or its effects.
Why it matters: This shows if the company is making more money without one-time gains.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA growth is over 5% year over year, not counting tariff refunds.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA growth is under 5% year over year, not counting tariff refunds.
Why it matters: Updates on this partnership could mean faster growth in Home & Personal Care.
Watch forThey announced new projects or investments from the Oaktree partnership.
Also watch forNo new news or projects from the partnership.
Why it matters: This growth shows the company is keeping costs low. It also means they are making more money.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA growth reported in the low to mid single digits.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA growth is less than 1 percent.
Why it matters: Better demand shows recovery in a part that has had problems.
Watch forHome & Personal Care net sales show improvement, growing year over year.
Also watch forHome & Personal Care net sales continue to decline year over year.
Why it matters: Closing this deal is crucial for the Home & Personal Care segment. It could boost long-term growth.
Supportive ifThe deal with Oaktree Capital is done. The investment has been received.
Worry ifThe partnership deal does not close as planned or is delayed.
Why it matters: Strong sales growth signals that the company is on track with its revenue goals for fiscal 2026.
Supportive ifQ4 net sales growth meets or exceeds 5% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ4 net sales growth falls below 3% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Steady EBITDA growth shows good performance. It also helps create cash flow.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA grew over 5% from last year in Q4.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA grew less than 3% from last year in Q4.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it could signal a positive shift in the sector. This would help Spectrum Brands stand out in a maturing market.
Supportive ifRevenue growth for the Consumer Staples sector exceeds 4% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: This shows the company's ability to generate cash from its earnings, which is vital for growth.
Supportive ifAdjusted free cash flow is about 50% of adjusted EBITDA.
Worry ifAdjusted free cash flow is much lower than 50% of adjusted EBITDA.
Why it matters: Better conversion means better use of money and stronger financial health.
Supportive ifFree Cash Flow conversion rate exceeds 50% in the next quarter.
Worry ifFree Cash Flow conversion rate remains below 50%.
Why it matters: This investment could boost growth in the Home and Personal Care segment.
Supportive ifPositive revenue growth reported in the Home and Personal Care segment in Q3.
Worry ifRevenue in the Home and Personal Care segment declines in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$136 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $329 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,455 loss on $10,000 · 14.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.