Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc. (SPB)
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$91.57+7.72%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SPB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -8.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers
Why it matters: Management kept this sales range after three quarters of growth. A miss would break the current trend.
Watch forIn the November 12 results, fiscal 2026 sales are flat to up low single digits, as guided.
Also watch forIn the November 12 results, fiscal 2026 sales are down year over year or below the guided range.
Why it matters: Management kept a 50% cash conversion target. The next report can show whether cash flow supports that goal.
Supportive ifFiscal 2026 adjusted free cash flow is about 50% of adjusted EBITDA. This excludes tariff refunds.
Worry ifFiscal 2026 adjusted free cash flow is below 40% of adjusted EBITDA. This excludes tariff refunds.
Why it matters: HPC sales rose 3.6% in Q3, but North American sales fell mid single digits. A lasting recovery remains unclear.
Watch forHPC sales grow year over year in the next report, with North American sales no longer down mid single digits.
Also watch forHPC sales fall year over year, or North American sales remain down mid single digits or worse.
Why it matters: Management plans to finish the last rollout later this year. Completion would end the staged ERP change across the company.
Supportive ifThe company reports that SAP S/4 HANA is live in HPC EMEA by December 31, 2026.
Worry ifThe company reports that the HPC EMEA rollout is delayed past December 31, 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$104 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $299 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,647 loss on $10,000 · 16.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.