Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc (SPCE)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-05
$2.38-5.18%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SPCE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
A comparable price-assumption read is not available for this company.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 27 industry peers
SPCE — litigation filed
Dated 2026-08-18
Other Events. On August 18, 2026, Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. issued a press release announcing that the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of New York issued an order on August 14, 2026 granting final approval of the settlement of the consolidated derivative lawsuit captioned In re Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. Derivative Litigation , Case No. 1:22-cv-00933 (E.D.N.Y.) and the derivative lawsuit captioned St. Jean v. Branson et al. , Case No. 1:22-cv-7551 (E.D.N.Y.). A copy of t…
Why it matters: The first paid flight was moved from Q4 2026 to February 2027 for more systems work. Another delay would push back the start of service.
Watch forThe company starts its first paid spaceflight by February 28, 2027.
Also watch forThe company moves the first commercial flight beyond February 2027 or reports it has not begun by month-end.
Why it matters: Cash use remains large before paid flights begin. A smaller outflow would ease pressure on the $286 million cash balance.
Watch forQ3 free cash flow is better than negative $95 million, with a smaller cash outflow than the guided range.
Also watch forQ3 free cash flow is worse than negative $100 million.
Why it matters: The last $750,000 tranche sold out early and was oversubscribed. A strong next sale would show demand at higher prices.
Supportive ifThe company offers a batch of higher-priced tickets. It reports that all tickets are booked, or that demand exceeds supply.
Worry ifThe company reports that the higher-priced tranche is not fully booked, or delays its release beyond 2026.
Why it matters: Rocket production is a named build step for the new spaceships. A start on time would support the planned fleet build.
Supportive ifThe company says it started making rockets by December 31, 2026.
Worry ifThe company reports no rocket production start by December 31, 2026, or moves the start date.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$253 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $690 loss on $10,000 · 6.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,888 loss on $10,000 · 68.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Flight tests are a key step toward paid flights in February 2027. A delay would add risk to that launch date.
Watch forThe company reports that the first spaceship began flight tests in October 2026.
Also watch forThe company reports that flight tests did not start in October or gives a later start date.
Why it matters: Management tied better cash flow to its 2027 plan. Missing the Q4 range would weaken that cash plan.
Supportive ifQ4 free cash flow is between negative $80 million and negative $90 million, and is better than Q3.
Worry ifQ4 free cash flow is worse than negative $90 million or does not improve from Q3.