Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc (SPCE)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$3.04+2.70%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SPCE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
A comparable price-assumption read is not available for this company.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 55 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SPCE — litigation filed
Dated 2026-08-18
Other Events. On August 18, 2026, Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. issued a press release announcing that the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of New York issued an order on August 14, 2026 granting final approval of the settlement of the consolidated derivative lawsuit captioned In re Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. Derivative Litigation , Case No. 1:22-cv-00933 (E.D.N.Y.) and the derivative lawsuit captioned St. Jean v. Branson et al. , Case No. 1:22-cv-7551 (E.D.N.Y.). A copy of t…
Why it matters: Starting commercial operations is key for revenue growth. Delays could hurt investor confidence.
Supportive ifThey announced successful commercial flights in Q4 2026.
Worry ifCommercial operations will be delayed past Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Higher prices may show strong demand. This could help future revenue.
Supportive ifThe company announces new spaceflight trips that cost more than $750,000.
Worry ifThe company fails to announce a new tranche or prices remain at $750,000.
Why it matters: The first commercial flight is key to starting revenue generation. Delays could hurt investor confidence.
Supportive ifFlight testing will finish in October 2026. The company will be ready for commercial work.
Worry ifFurther delays in flight testing or commercial launch beyond February 2027.
Why it matters: Less cash could limit how the company operates and grows.
Worry ifFuture reports show cash below $250 million.
Less concerning ifCash remains above $250 million in upcoming reports.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$404 on $10,000 · ±4.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $749 loss on $10,000 · 7.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,782 loss on $10,000 · 67.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Completing the flight test phase is crucial for starting commercial spaceflights in 2027.
Supportive ifSuccessful completion of the flight test phase with no significant delays.
Worry ifDelays in the flight test phase beyond October 2026.
Why it matters: Starting flight tests is crucial for Virgin Galactic's timeline to commercial spaceflight. Delays could impact future revenue.
Supportive ifFlight testing begins as scheduled in October 2026.
Worry ifFlight testing is delayed beyond October 2026.
Why it matters: Cash burn trends will help check the company's financial health. This is important as it prepares for commercial operations.
Worry ifNet cash used in operating activities for Q2 2026 is worse than $54 million.
Less concerning ifNet cash used in operating activities for Q2 2026 is better than $54 million.
Why it matters: Better liquidity is important for Virgin Galactic. They need it for commercial operations and to handle debt.
Supportive ifThe company raises over $100 million by selling equity to get more cash.
Worry ifThe company does not raise the needed amount from equity sales. This hurts liquidity.
Why it matters: Better free cash flow shows stronger financial health. The company gets ready for operations.
Supportive ifFree cash flow for Q4 2026 improves to $(80) million to $(90) million.
Worry ifFree cash flow for Q4 2026 worsens beyond $(90) million.
Why it matters: Less cash flow shows financial problems. This could affect future operations.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported worse than $(95) million for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow improves or stays better than $(95) million in Q3 2026.