Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc (SPCE)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.51+0.40%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
Research Workspace
Put SPCE beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Aerospace & Defense is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Start commercial operations by Q4 2026: Commercial ops delayed to Feb 2027 vs Q4 2026 target.
View ThesisRevenue is contracting — down about 39% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementThis stock is volatile — it swings about 3% on a typical day and fell roughly 69% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskVirgin Galactic's commercial spaceflight operations must begin to justify the price. Revenue fell 75% year over year in the latest quarter. The company beat earnings estimates by 16.7% in Q2 FY2026. Commercial operations are now expected to start in February 2027. This delay pushes the start past the original Q4 2026 target. The primary pillar of the thesis is under pressure. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 28%. The thesis is on watch. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-11-04. SPCE is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 7 analysts currently covering SPCE (as of Nov 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
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Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-11-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Aerospace & Defense — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put SPCE next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Prepare for commercial spaceflight operations in 2027
New vehicle launch supports 2027 commercial operations goal.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-11-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Threatens: Prepare for commercial spaceflight operations in 2027
Launch delay to February 2027 impacts growth timeline.
Advances: Achieve sequential improvement in free cash flow in 2026
Positive cash flow forecast supports financial objectives.
Advances: Prepare for commercial spaceflight operations in 2027
Strong demand supports preparation for commercial spaceflight operations.
Threatens: Prepare for commercial operation in Q4 2026
Commercial operation pushed to February 2027 delays objectives.
Threatens: Prepare for commercial operation in Q4 2026
Delayed launch impacts preparation for commercial operations.
Threatens: Improve liquidity and financial flexibility
Debt swap raises liquidity concerns affecting financial flexibility.
Threatens: Improve liquidity and financial flexibility
Debt swap impacts liquidity and financial flexibility negatively.