Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. Class A Common Stock (SPCX)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$135.92-3.81%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.78 → 4.10 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 25 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 15 to 25; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SPCX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Raise capital through senior unsecured notes issuance | It raised $25 billion in senior notes in June 2026 to fund expansion. | Intact | Capital access impaired or debt servicing issues arise post-issuance | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-growth business with exposure to cyclical Industrials conditions. Management priorities show delivery in recent revenue and operating results, but each is rated mixed, and the thesis state is insufficient because there is not enough recent financial history to assess it. Confidence in the overall evidence is low.
The snapshot provides no valuation level or expectations estimate, so whether SPCX is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed. It reports low fragility, with no fragility gates triggered, but that does not establish what expectations are already reflected.
Near term, the October earnings beat is a positive signal, while the recent risk label rose from moderate to elevated. Across Q2 and Q3 2026, revenue grew from $7.8 billion to $14.6 billion and operating results shifted from a loss to income; connectivity and AI also expanded, though the AI segment moved from a Q2 operating loss to positive Q3 income. A recent history of a deep miss and a downward trend in earnings surprises remain cautions, despite a low near-term miss estimate.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued execution in space, connectivity, and AI, including further Starlink adoption and AI capacity growth. Near term, continued strong results and guidance from Industrials bellwethers such as GE, RTX, and LMT could support the sector backdrop; weaker results or guidance could remove that support. Further job-market weakening could also weigh on cyclical Industrials businesses.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SPCX shows meaningful operating progress, but the mixed execution ratings, elevated risk, and weak sector backdrop make the long-term thesis uncertain. Valuation cannot be judged from the evidence provided. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| SpaceX aims to complete its merger with Cursor, a key growth step. |
| Intact |
| Merger not completed or integration fails by FY26 |
Merger completed 2026-06-16 vs target end-2026 SPCX completed the Cursor merger on June 16, 2026, with Cursor surviving as a wholly owned subsidiary. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
EPS improves from -$0.42 in 2026 to positive $0.20 in 2027 | A primary condition in Space Exploration Technologies Corp. Class A Common Stock's published investment case. The stated target is EPS improves to positive $0.20 in 2027. | Improving | EPS remains negative or worsens beyond -$0.42 in 2027 | Diluted EPS: $0.35 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS improves to positive $0.20 in 2027. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 22, 20260.35 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth from $36.8B in 2026 to $68.3B in 2027 | A primary condition in Space Exploration Technologies Corp. Class A Common Stock's published investment case. The stated target is Revenue grows from $36.8B in 2026 to $68.3B in 2027. | Improving | Revenue fails to grow or declines below $36B in 2027 | Revenue: $14.575B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Revenue grows from $36.8B in 2026 to $68.3B in 2027. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 22, 202614,575,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.54 → $4.10 · observed estimates
$74.20B → $160.26B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.54 | $74,200,000,000 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.65 | $73,151,557,830 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.65 | $73,151,557,830 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.65 | $73,151,557,830 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.54 | $74,200,000,000 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.65 | $73,151,542,570 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.65 | $73,151,542,570 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.63 | $74,200,000,000 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.63 | $74,200,000,000 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.65 | $73,151,542,570 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.65 | $73,151,542,570 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.63 | $74,200,000,000 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.60 | $73,151,558,360 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.63 | $74,200,000,000 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.25 | $90,932,230,440 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.66 | $74,860,000,000 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.25 | $90,932,230,440 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.32 | $95,488,521,940 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.32 | $95,488,521,940 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.66 | $74,860,000,000 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.66 | $74,860,000,000 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.66 | $74,860,000,000 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.66 | $74,860,000,000 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.66 | $74,860,000,000 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.66 | $74,860,000,000 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.53 | $101,970,000,000 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.62 | $103,480,000,000 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.62 | $103,480,000,000 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.62 | $103,480,000,000 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.62 | $103,480,000,000 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.62 | $103,480,000,000 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.62 | $103,480,000,000 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.62 | $103,480,000,000 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.62 | $103,480,000,000 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.62 | $103,480,000,000 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.62 | $103,480,000,000 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.62 | $103,480,000,000 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.62 | $103,480,000,000 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.62 | $103,480,000,000 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.62 | $103,480,000,000 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.63 | $103,480,000,000 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.63 | $104,090,000,000 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.63 | $104,090,000,000 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.63 | $104,090,000,000 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.63 | $104,090,000,000 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.63 | $104,090,000,000 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.63 | $104,090,000,000 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.63 | $104,090,000,000 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.63 | $104,090,000,000 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.63 | $104,090,000,000 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.63 | $104,090,000,000 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.63 | $104,090,000,000 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.63 | $104,090,000,000 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.79 | $104,090,000,000 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.79 | $104,090,000,000 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.79 | $104,090,000,000 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.63 | $105,000,000,000 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.63 | $105,000,000,000 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.63 | $105,000,000,000 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.63 | $105,000,000,000 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.63 | $105,000,000,000 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.63 | $105,000,000,000 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.63 | $105,000,000,000 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.63 | $105,000,000,000 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.63 | $105,000,000,000 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.63 | $105,000,000,000 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.63 | $105,000,000,000 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.78 | $105,000,000,000 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.78 | $107,360,000,000 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.78 | $107,360,000,000 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.78 | $107,360,000,000 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.78 | $107,360,000,000 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.78 | $107,360,000,000 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.96 | $109,840,000,000 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.96 | $109,840,000,000 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.96 | $109,840,000,000 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.96 | $109,840,000,000 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.96 | $109,840,000,000 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.96 | $109,840,000,000 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.96 | $109,840,000,000 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.94 | $109,620,000,000 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.94 | $109,620,000,000 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.94 | $109,620,000,000 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.94 | $109,620,000,000 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.94 | $109,010,000,000 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.94 | $109,010,000,000 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.90 | $109,010,000,000 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.76 | $109,010,000,000 | 19 / 20 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.76 | $109,010,000,000 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.46 | $135,660,000,000 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.46 | $135,660,000,000 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.92 | $155,200,000,000 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.92 | $155,200,000,000 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.92 | $155,200,000,000 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.92 | $151,030,000,000 | 25 / 29 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.92 | $151,030,000,000 | 25 / 29 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.92 | $151,030,000,000 | 25 / 29 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.92 | $155,260,000,000 | 25 / 29 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.10 | $160,260,000,000 | 25 / 29 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.10 | $160,260,000,000 | 25 / 29 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.10 | $160,260,000,000 | 25 / 29 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.10 | $160,260,000,000 | 25 / 29 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 31 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 18 recorded
8 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.