Space Exploration Technologies Corp. Class A Common Stock (SPCX)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$135.92-3.81%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SPCX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -25.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 100 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 22 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SPCX — capital allocation
Dated 2026-08-14
The issuance of the Merger Consideration to Cursor was completed in reliance upon the exemption from the registration requirements of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, provided by Section 4(a)(2) thereof as a transaction by an issuer not involving any public offering.
Why it matters: SI moved from a $1.3 billion loss in Q2 to $431 million in Q3. Positive results would show that new sales can cover more costs.
Supportive ifA later quarter shows SI operating income above zero. SI revenue still grows year over year.
Worry ifSI operating income turns negative again or SI revenue falls year over year.
Why it matters: SpaceX plans heavy SI spending, with $16.4 billion in Q3 capex. The GPU lease may add capacity, but its cost and lease terms matter too.
Watch forA filing lists lease costs and shows more GPU capacity. SI revenue grows, and operating income stays positive.
Also watch forA filing shows lease costs rising without clear added capacity. Or SI operating income turns negative again.
Why it matters: The licenses support Starlink Mobile. Closing the deal would clear one step toward that plan; a delay or denial would slow it.
Watch forSpaceX reports that the 800 MHz license deal closed by the first half of 2027.
Also watch forThe deal misses the first-half 2027 window or regulators block the transfer.
Why it matters: Starlink reached 13.6 million consumer subscribers. Monthly revenue per subscriber rose to $69. These measures show if growth adds customers without lowering revenue per customer.
Supportive ifConsumer subscribers rise above 13.6 million and monthly ARPU stays at or above $69.
Worry ifSubscriber growth stalls or monthly ARPU falls below $66.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$255 on $10,000 · ±2.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $694 loss on $10,000 · 6.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,635 loss on $10,000 · 46.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.