Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR)
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$7.71-8.00%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SPIR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Keep adjusted EBITDA loss between -$26M and -$20.7M in 2026 | The company plans to keep adjusted EBITDA losses under $26M. | Broken | Adjusted EBITDA loss exceeds -$26M in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “● Adjusted EBITDA (1) of ($8.6) million in second quarter 2026 improved 16% compared to prior year adjusted EBITDA of ($10.2) million, primarily driven by lower operating expenses.” “● Second quarter 2026 cash flow used in operations was $23.4 million, reflecting a 32% year-over-year improvement and a 11% sequential improvement.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth business with a loss-making profile, not a proven durable compounder. Its long-term thesis is still developing: recent signals have improved from cautious to mixed, while the thesis remains in a watch state.
The valuation is described as cheap, yet the model indicates a premium versus peers, with low confidence and an expectations gap tied to future growth optionality. The evidence does not explain this tension in detail, so how much future growth is already assumed remains uncertain.
Near term, execution risk is elevated after an earnings miss, weak performance relative to the industry cohort, and a 41% estimated miss probability. In Q2 2026, revenue excluding maritime grew 16% year over year, below the full-year goal of more than 50%, while adjusted EBITDA losses improved year over year and management remains within its full-year loss guidance range. A new commercial leader may support growth, but there is not yet evidence of results from that change.
The multi-year thesis depends on revenue growth excluding maritime accelerating toward management’s stated goal and on adjusted EBITDA losses continuing to improve. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued strong results from the cited Industrials bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SPIR’s case depends on turning stated growth goals into stronger results while narrowing losses. The evidence is mixed, and the high-risk thesis remains in a watch state. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain stable management team | A supporting condition in Spire Global, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No major executive departures. | Under Pressure | Loss of key executives or high turnover | 1 key exec departure vs 0 target COO departure confirmed in May 2026; no evidence of recovery or stability restoration. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue of $75M to $85M in 2026 | A primary condition in Spire Global, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $75M to $85M. | Intact | Revenue falls below $75M in FY26 | Revenue: $18.048M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $75M to $85M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 202618,048,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.51 → $-0.52 · observed estimates
$0.10B → $0.10B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.51 | $97,812,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.51 | $97,812,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.51 | $97,812,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.51 | $97,812,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.51 | $97,812,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.25 | $98,691,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.25 | $98,691,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.25 | $98,691,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.51 | $97,812,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.25 | $98,691,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.51 | $97,812,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.51 | $97,812,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.25 | $98,691,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.51 | $97,812,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.25 | $98,691,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.25 | $98,691,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.25 | $98,691,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.25 | $98,691,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.25 | $98,691,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.51 | $97,812,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.51 | $97,812,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.51 | $97,812,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.51 | $97,812,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.51 | $97,812,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.51 | $97,812,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.39 | $99,999,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.39 | $99,999,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.39 | $99,999,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.39 | $99,999,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.39 | $99,999,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.39 | $99,999,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.39 | $99,999,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.39 | $99,999,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.39 | $99,999,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.39 | $99,999,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.39 | $99,999,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.39 | $99,999,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.39 | $99,999,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.39 | $99,999,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.39 | $99,999,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.39 | $99,999,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.39 | $100,877,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.39 | $100,877,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.39 | $100,877,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.39 | $100,877,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.39 | $100,877,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.39 | $99,708,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.39 | $99,708,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.39 | $99,708,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.39 | $99,708,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.39 | $99,708,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.39 | $99,708,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.39 | $99,708,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.39 | $99,708,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.39 | $99,708,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.39 | $99,708,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.39 | $99,708,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.39 | $99,708,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.39 | $99,708,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.39 | $99,708,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.39 | $99,708,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.39 | $99,708,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.39 | $99,708,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.39 | $99,708,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.39 | $99,708,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.39 | $99,708,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.39 | $99,708,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.39 | $99,708,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.39 | $99,708,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.39 | $99,708,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.39 | $99,708,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.39 | $99,708,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.52 | $100,313,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.52 | $100,313,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.52 | $100,313,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.52 | $100,313,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.52 | $100,313,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.52 | $100,313,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.52 | $100,313,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.52 | $100,313,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.52 | $100,313,278 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.52 | $100,313,278 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.52 | $100,313,278 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.52 | $100,313,278 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.52 | $100,313,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.52 | $100,313,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.52 | $100,313,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.52 | $100,313,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.52 | $100,313,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.52 | $100,313,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.52 | $100,313,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.52 | $100,313,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.52 | $100,313,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.52 | $100,313,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.52 | $100,313,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.52 | $100,313,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.52 | $100,313,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.52 | $100,313,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.52 | $100,313,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.52 | $100,313,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.52 | $100,313,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.52 | $100,313,200 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.