Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR)
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$8.38-3.68%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SPIR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 199.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 54.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 145.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers
SPIR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-12
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 12, 2026, Spire Global, Inc. (“Spire”) issued a news release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. Spire will also host an earnings call on August 12, 2026, during which Spire will discuss its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 and provide a business update. A copy of the news release issued by Spire is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated here…
Why it matters: Spire remains loss-making, and its full-year plan calls for an adjusted EBITDA loss of $20.7 million to $26.0 million.
Supportive ifThe full-year report shows an adjusted EBITDA loss of $26.0 million or less.
Worry ifThe full-year report shows an adjusted EBITDA loss greater than $26.0 million.
Why it matters: Spire used $23.4 million in cash from operations in Q2. Management said cash use would improve in Q3 and Q4.
Supportive ifQ3 cash used in operations is below $23.4 million.
Worry ifQ3 cash used in operations is $23.4 million or more.
Why it matters: That is the low end of Spire’s full-year range. It would keep the company on track for its stated growth goal.
Supportive ifThe 2026 report shows revenue excluding maritime of at least $71.6 million, equal to 42% growth or more.
Worry ifThe 2026 report shows revenue, excluding maritime, below $71.6 million. Or management cuts the full-year range.
Why it matters: NorthStar seeks damages over a Spire Space Services contract. A public outcome would show the case’s direct result.
Watch forA court or arbitration filing says the claims were dismissed, settled, or resolved with no payment by Spire.
Also watch forA court or arbitration filing awards damages to NorthStar or orders Spire to pay.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$207 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $889 loss on $10,000 · 8.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,711 loss on $10,000 · 67.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.