Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR)
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$11.98+0.84%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SPIR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -24.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 45.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 69.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SPIR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-12
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 12, 2026, Spire Global, Inc. (“Spire”) issued a news release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. Spire will also host an earnings call on August 12, 2026, during which Spire will discuss its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 and provide a business update. A copy of the news release issued by Spire is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated here…
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect company plans and how it runs.
Watch forAnnouncement of a new COO with relevant experience and vision.
Also watch forThere is still uncertainty. A new COO has not been announced.
Why it matters: If revenue growth in the industrials sector picks up, it could benefit Spire's performance.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth is speeding up again. This shows a stronger market.
Worry ifSector revenue growth keeps slowing down. This shows ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: The termination could impact future revenue and project pipeline. Investors need clarity on next steps.
Worry ifNew contracts or projects were announced to take the place of the canceled satellite contract.
Less concerning ifNo updates or more contract cancellations may mean revenue loss.
Why it matters: Eric Mellinger’s leadership may help revenue growth and business plans. Investors want to see improvement.
Watch forMellinger’s leadership brought positive revenue trends and new contracts.
Also watch forNo big changes in revenue or business plans after Mellinger was appointed.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$442 on $10,000 · ±4.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $964 loss on $10,000 · 9.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,863 loss on $10,000 · 58.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Stable cash flow means the company is more efficient. It also shows stronger finances.
Supportive ifCash flow for operations stays below $26.2 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifCash flow used in operations increases beyond $26.2 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Confirming this guidance shows trust in future growth and stability.
Supportive ifManagement confirms revenue guidance of $75M to $85M for 2026.
Worry ifManagement cuts revenue guidance to below $75M.
Why it matters: This range shows Spire is keeping costs low and making more money. It is an important sign of financial health.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA lands between -$26 million and -$20.7 million for Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is worse than -$26 million. This shows ongoing losses.
Why it matters: Smaller losses mean better cost control. This shows more efficient operations.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA losses narrow to -$20.7M or better.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA losses go beyond -$26M.
Why it matters: Achieving this growth shows Spire is on track with its revenue goals. It confirms management's confidence in the business's recovery.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue, not counting maritime, is over $18.0 million. This shows more than 50% growth from 2025.
Worry ifQ3 revenue, not counting maritime, is under $18.0 million. This shows slower growth.
Why it matters: This would signal that cost management is not on track. Investors are watching for improvement in profitability.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was worse than -$26M. This shows there are cost problems.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA improves to -$20.7M or better. This shows good cost management.