Spruce Power Holding Corp (SPRU)
NYSEInformation TechnologySolarSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.78+0.56%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySolarSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SPRU
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -90.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 17.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 107.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SPRU — director transition
Dated 2026-06-24
director — Ja-chin Audrey Lee: Ms. Lee resigned from her position as a director of the Company effective immediately.
Why it matters: Negative cash flow may mean there are issues with efficiency and financial health.
Worry ifCash flow from operations turns negative for Q2.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations remains positive for Q2.
Why it matters: New contracts would indicate growth and stability in cash flows from solar assets.
Supportive ifAt least 5 new long-term contracts added to the portfolio in Q2.
Worry ifNo new long-term contracts added in Q2.
Why it matters: Higher debt repayment shows a focus on lowering debt and becoming more stable.
Supportive ifDebt repayment exceeds $5 million in Q2.
Worry ifDebt repayment is below $3 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Slower EBITDA growth may show problems with managing costs and being efficient.
Worry ifOperating EBITDA growth below 5% year over year in Q3.
Less concerning ifOperating EBITDA growth exceeds 10% year over year in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$218 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $744 loss on $10,000 · 7.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,307 loss on $10,000 · 73.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Improving revenue from long-term contracts signals better growth positioning. This is key for future success.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue from long-term contracts increases year over year by more than 5%.
Worry ifQ2 revenue from long-term contracts decreases year over year or stays flat.
Why it matters: More cash generation shows the company is getting stable and managing costs well.
Supportive ifQ2 cash from operations is over $2.6 million.
Worry ifQ2 cash from operations is below $2.6 million.
Why it matters: Improved revenue growth signals better use of long-term contracts. This is key for future growth.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue shows growth above $23.42M, indicating better performance than Q1.
Worry ifQ2 revenue falls below $23.42M, showing continued struggles with growth.
Why it matters: Paying off debt shows strong finances and a focus on lowering debt.
Supportive ifManagement announces paying down at least $5 million in debt in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo debt repayment announcements or an increase in total debt.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a slowdown in the Information Technology sector. This could impact Spruce Power's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median for the last year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median for the last year.
Why it matters: New contracts would support growth and stability in cash flows for the company.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of new long-term contracts for solar assets in Q2.
Worry ifNo new long-term contracts announced in Q2.
Why it matters: More cash flow means better efficiency and profit. It can make investors more confident.
Supportive ifAdjusted Cash Flow from Operations exceeds $4.8 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted Cash Flow from Operations is below $4.8 million. This shows there are problems.
Why it matters: Growth in long-term contracts is important for stable future revenue. It shows good strategy.
Watch forManagement says gross portfolio value is over $802 million in Q3 2026.
Also watch forGross portfolio value drops below $802 million. This shows possible challenges.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Spruce keeps making money and cutting costs.
Supportive ifOperating EBITDA goes up by more than 40% each year.
Worry ifOperating EBITDA goes down each year or does not improve much.
Why it matters: A big drop in revenue might show problems with demand or pricing for solar services.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $27.3 million, which is a 10% decline from Q3 2025.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue stabilizes or grows year over year.
Why it matters: Reducing debt is important for better financial health and growth options.
Supportive ifDebt reduction exceeds $7.9 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifDebt reduction falls below $7 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in cash per share might show money problems and affect operations.
Worry ifCash per share reported below $4.00 in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifCash per share remains above $4.00.
Why it matters: Higher SG&A expenses might show inefficiencies and hurt profits.
Worry ifSG&A expenses exceed $12 million in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifSG&A expenses remain below $12 million.