Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings Inc (SPWH)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.160.00%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SPWH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve adjusted EBITDA of $30M-$36M for 2026 | Sportsman's Warehouse aims for $30M-$36M adjusted EBITDA in 2026. | Intact | adjusted EBITDA falls below $30 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “2 Fiscal Year 2026 Outlook: For fiscal year 2026, the Company is reiterating its guidance and estimates same store sales to be in the range of down 1.0% to up 2.0% and adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $30 million to $36 million.” “Fiscal Year 2026 Outlook: For fiscal year 2026, the Company is reiterating its guidance and estimates same store sales to be in the range of down 1.0% to up 2.0% and adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $30 million to $36 million.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk turnaround-style business, not a proven durable compounder: recent financial performance is weak and the company is loss-making. The three-to-six-month thesis is on watch, though it has not freshly broken; management is showing progress in its category-growth focus.
SPWH is described as cheap versus peers, but the valuation model has low confidence and its expectations gap is negative. The evidence also shows low valuation fragility, so there is no clear sign that the current setup depends on unusually fragile expectations.
Over the multi-year view, continued growth in Hunting and Shooting Sports could support sales, while recent results remain weak and the company is loss-making. Inventory discipline has improved, but that priority is still marked behind; capital spending guidance is stable but its execution status is mixed. Near term, risk is high, and a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback despite guidance having been reaffirmed as of June 2, 2026.
The long-term thesis hinges on category growth continuing and translating into profitable growth, alongside stronger inventory discipline. Near term, reaffirmed guidance must hold; a cut would weaken the setup. Consumer Discretionary sector signals are another swing factor, though the evidence for their effect on SPWH is limited.
For the next one to three years, SPWH has a credible category-growth effort but an unproven path from sales growth to profitability, with weak performance and high risk weighing on the thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain CAPEX guidance of $20M-$25M for 2026 | A supporting condition in Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is 20 to 25 million USD. | Intact | CAPEX exceeds $25 million or falls below $20 million in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $3.461M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 20 to 25 million USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 1, 20263,461,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Improve free cash flow to $7.6M for 2026 | Free cash flow target is $7.6M. | Intact | free cash flow falls below $7.6 million in FY26 | Free cash flow: $-17.54M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=7.6 million USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 1, 2026-17,540,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stabilize revenue near $1.2 billion in 2026-2027 | A primary condition in Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is ~1.2 billion USD. | Intact | revenue falls below $1.15 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $295.583M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~1.2 billion USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 1, 2026295,583,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “2 Fiscal Year 2026 Outlook: For fiscal year 2026, the Company is reiterating its guidance and estimates same store sales to be in the range of down 1.0% to up 2.0% and adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $30 million to $36 million.” “Fiscal Year 2026 Outlook: For fiscal year 2026, the Company is reiterating its guidance and estimates same store sales to be in the range of down 1.0% to up 2.0% and adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $30 million to $36 million.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.28 → $-0.20 · observed estimates
$1.21B → $1.23B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.28 | $1,208,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.28 | $1,208,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.28 | $1,208,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.28 | $1,208,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.28 | $1,208,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.28 | $1,208,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.28 | $1,208,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.28 | $1,208,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.28 | $1,208,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.28 | $1,208,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.28 | $1,208,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.28 | $1,208,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.28 | $1,208,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.28 | $1,208,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.28 | $1,208,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.28 | $1,208,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.28 | $1,208,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.28 | $1,208,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.28 | $1,208,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.28 | $1,208,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.28 | $1,208,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.28 | $1,208,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.28 | $1,208,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.28 | $1,208,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.28 | $1,208,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.28 | $1,208,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.28 | $1,208,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.28 | $1,208,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.28 | $1,208,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.28 | $1,208,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.28 | $1,208,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.28 | $1,208,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.28 | $1,208,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.28 | $1,208,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.28 | $1,208,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.28 | $1,208,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.28 | $1,208,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.28 | $1,208,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.28 | $1,208,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.28 | $1,211,976,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.22 | $1,226,482,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.22 | $1,226,482,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.22 | $1,226,482,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.22 | $1,226,482,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.22 | $1,226,482,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.22 | $1,226,482,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.22 | $1,226,482,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.22 | $1,226,482,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.22 | $1,226,482,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.22 | $1,226,482,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.22 | $1,226,482,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.20 | $1,229,806,000 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Dec 3, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.