Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings Inc (SPWH)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
$1.10-5.17%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SPWH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -89.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 93.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 14 industry peers
SPWH — credit agreement
Dated 2026-06-24
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Sportsman’s Warehouse, Inc. (“SWI”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Sportsman’s Warehouse Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”). On June 18, 2026, SWI as lead borrower, the Company as guarantor and other subsidiaries of the Company, each as borrowers, and PLC Agent LLC (the “Pathlight Agent”), as administrative and collateral agent for various lenders (the “ABL Lenders”), entered into an Amended and Restated ABL Term Loan Credit Agreement (the “A&R Term Lo…
Why it matters: This department drove recent sales gains, even as other categories faced pressure. A drop would weaken the clearest growth signal.
Watch forQ3 results on December 3 show Hunting and Shooting Sports same-store sales growth above 0% year over year.
Also watch forQ3 results on December 3 show Hunting and Shooting Sports same-store sales at or below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Q2 same-store sales were flat, while the full-year range runs from down 1% to up 2%. Holiday sales will test that range.
Watch forOn December 3, 2026, the company reports full-year same-store sales. They range from down 1% to up 2%.
Also watch forOn December 3, 2026, the company reports full-year same-store sales below down 1% or above up 2%. It cuts the range before year-end.
Why it matters: Q2 margin rose to 32.5%, helped by lower freight costs and a one-time tariff benefit. Results without that benefit test the lasting gain.
Watch forQ3 gross margin is at least 32.5% of sales, and the report does not cite a one-time tariff benefit.
Also watch forQ3 gross margin is below 32.0% of sales, or the report says a one-time tariff gain lifted the rate again.
Why it matters: Q1 adjusted EBITDA was -$8.1 million and Q2 was $8.7 million. The next report will show progress toward the full-year range.
Watch forOn December 3, 2026, the company keeps its $30 million to $36 million adjusted EBITDA range. Its results support meeting that range.
Also watch forThe company cuts its $30 million to $36 million range, or its results no longer support reaching $30 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$172 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $524 loss on $10,000 · 5.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,755 loss on $10,000 · 57.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Lower inventory and debt can free cash for the business. Q2 inventory was down $44.5 million and net debt was $167.0 million.
Supportive ifThe December 3 report shows inventory below $399.0 million and net debt below $167.0 million. Both are compared with August 1.
Worry ifThe December 3 report shows inventory at or above $399.0 million or net debt at or above $167.0 million.