Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings Inc (SPWH)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.30+4.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SPWH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -84.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 86.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 44 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SPWH — credit agreement
Dated 2026-06-24
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Sportsman’s Warehouse, Inc. (“SWI”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Sportsman’s Warehouse Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”). On June 18, 2026, SWI as lead borrower, the Company as guarantor and other subsidiaries of the Company, each as borrowers, and PLC Agent LLC (the “Pathlight Agent”), as administrative and collateral agent for various lenders (the “ABL Lenders”), entered into an Amended and Restated ABL Term Loan Credit Agreement (the “A&R Term Lo…
Why it matters: Positive free cash flow shows financial health and the ability to pay down debt.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported at $7.6 million or higher for 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $7.6 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Improving free cash flow to $7.6M is key for financial health and flexibility.
Watch forFree cash flow reported at or above $7.6M would show financial improvement.
Also watch forFree cash flow under $7.6M shows ongoing money issues.
Why it matters: This report will update us on sales, profits, and overall performance.
Watch forThe earnings report shows sales and EBITDA are better than expected.
Also watch forEarnings report shows worse than expected sales and EBITDA.
Why it matters: This will show if the company is on track to meet its $30M-$36M target for 2026.
Watch forAdjusted EBITDA is over $36M. This shows strong performance.
Also watch forAdjusted EBITDA under $30M shows problems in reaching goals.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$172 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $622 loss on $10,000 · 6.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,686 loss on $10,000 · 66.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This report will give insights into revenue and profit trends. It can impact investor confidence and stock performance.
Watch forQ3 earnings show revenue growth or strong profit margins.
Also watch forThe Q3 earnings report shows lower revenue or bigger losses.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows the company is on track for its profit goals. It also helps reassure investors about financial health.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA reported within the $30M-$36M range.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA falls below $30M.
Why it matters: Maintaining CAPEX guidance of $20M-$25M is crucial for growth and investment plans.
Supportive ifManagement confirms CAPEX guidance remains in the $20M-$25M range.
Worry ifAny reduction in CAPEX guidance would raise concerns about future growth.
Why it matters: Growth in revenue for the sector may mean a recovery for Sportsman's Warehouse.
Watch forThe consumer discretionary sector shows revenue growth of more than 0% year over year.
Also watch forThe consumer discretionary sector still shows a drop in revenue year over year.
Why it matters: An increase in net debt would raise concerns about financial health and debt management.
Worry ifNet debt reported above $150 million.
Less concerning ifNet debt reported at or below $150 million.
Why it matters: Growth above 1.0% would signal strong demand in a tough consumer market. It shows the effectiveness of management's focus on Hunting and Shooting Sports.
Supportive ifSame store sales growth exceeds 1.0% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifSame store sales growth is below 1.0% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Hitting this target means more profits and better efficiency. It shows management cares about money.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA reaches at least $30 million for fiscal 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is less than $30 million for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Lower inventory levels mean better management and efficiency. This can help cash flow and cut costs.
Supportive ifInventory levels decrease further by at least 5% in Q4 2026.
Worry ifInventory levels increase or do not decrease in Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Staying in this range shows careful spending. It shows management focuses on smart investments.
Watch forCapital spending stays between $20 million and $25 million for 2026.
Also watch forCapital spending goes over $25 million for 2026.