Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
1st Source Corp. (SRCE)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$89.21+1.41%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.40 → 7.62 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SRCE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash flow from operating activities remains strong and stable | Cash flow from operations is strong and consistent. | Intact | Quarterly cash flow from operations falls below $44 million | Cash from operations: $71.075M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Maintain quarterly cash flow above $44 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 22, 202671,075,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
SRCE is a financial company with a durable-premium valuation profile, supported by robust earnings quality and stable management. Its multi-year view is watch rather than clearly established, since recent financial performance trails its industry cohort despite recent earnings beats.
Valuation is above peers, with a durable premium and a near-zero expectations gap. The premium is tagged as justified, and no fragility gates fired, but valuation has risen recently, so expectations may leave less room for execution to weaken.
Near-term results have been mixed: SRCE reported earnings beats in July and October, while the April result was in line. From the first to third quarter of 2026, net income and average loans and leases increased, while the capital ratio also strengthened; management priorities are mostly on track, though capital progress is marked mixed. Near-term miss risk is low, but past misses, recent peer misses, and the possibility of a guidance cut remain risks.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued earnings and loan growth, along with maintaining capital and liquidity. A guidance cut or rate cuts from the current level could weigh on the business, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum. Recent financial performance relative to peers is also worth watching.
Over the next one to three years, SRCE has evidence of execution on key growth priorities, but its above-peer valuation and recent relative performance leave the thesis dependent on steady delivery and the sector backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| grows earnings steadily, with EPS reaching a record $6.41 in 2026. |
| Intact |
| Diluted net income per share falls below $5.36 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $2.03 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=6.41 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 22, 20262.03 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income remains near $50M quarterly | Profit and operating income remain stable, supporting financial strength. | Intact | Operating income falls below $48 million in any quarter | Operating income: $64.155M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=48 million USD per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 22, 202664,155,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.03 → $7.62 · observed estimates
$0.47B → $0.49B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.03 | $473,645,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.03 | $473,645,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.03 | $473,645,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.03 | $473,645,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.03 | $473,645,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $7.03 | $473,642,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $7.40 | $482,543,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.40 | $482,543,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.40 | $482,543,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.40 | $482,543,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.40 | $482,543,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.40 | $482,543,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.40 | $482,543,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.40 | $482,543,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $7.40 | $482,536,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.40 | $482,536,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.40 | $482,536,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $7.40 | $482,543,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $7.48 | $485,565,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $7.48 | $485,565,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $7.62 | $489,561,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $7.62 | $489,561,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $7.62 | $489,561,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $7.62 | $489,561,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $7.62 | $489,561,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $7.62 | $489,561,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $7.62 | $489,561,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $7.62 | $489,561,667 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.