1st Source Corp. (SRCE)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$87.23+0.67%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SRCE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -1.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -5.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
SRCE — earnings in line
Dated 2026-04-23
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 23, 2026 , 1st Source Corporation issued a press release that announced its first quarter earnings for 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein.
Why it matters: Sector revenue growth trends affect SRCE's performance. A slowdown could impact its growth trajectory.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains above 15%, supporting SRCE's growth.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth is below its median. This shows a possible slowdown.
Why it matters: Changes in credit loss provisions show how good the credit is. Lower provisions mean better asset quality and risk management.
Supportive ifProvision for credit losses drops below $1 million in Q3.
Worry ifProvision for credit losses rises above $2 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Sustained cash flow supports overall financial health. A drop could signal issues in operations.
Watch forCash from operations exceeds $59.14 million in Q3 2026.
Also watch forCash from operations falls below $50.75 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key indicator of the company's health. A drop could signal broader sector issues.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains above the median of 15% over the next quarter.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth is below the median of 15%. This shows possible weakness in the sector.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$78 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $208 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,175 loss on $10,000 · 11.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The opening of a new location can boost market presence and client engagement. It reflects management's growth strategy.
Supportive ifThe West Lafayette banking center opens on schedule as planned.
Worry ifThe West Lafayette banking center will open later than expected.
Why it matters: Net charge-offs show credit quality. Lower charge-offs mean better loan performance. This helps earnings.
Supportive ifNet charge-offs remain below $0.52 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNet charge-offs exceed $0.52 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A higher cash dividend shows good financial health. It also shows focus on shareholders.
Supportive ifThe Board approves a cash dividend increase for Q3.
Worry ifThe Board does not increase the cash dividend for Q3.
Why it matters: A rise in dividends shows confidence in earnings. It shows management cares about shareholders.
Supportive ifManagement announces a dividend increase of more than $0.02 per share.
Worry ifNo increase in dividend or a decrease in dividend from $0.45 per share.
Why it matters: Strong net income growth shows the company's ability to deliver consistent earnings. This is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ3 net income grows more than 15% compared to Q2 2026.
Worry ifQ3 net income growth is less than 10% compared to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: More loans and leases show demand for financial services. This helps overall revenue growth.
Supportive ifAverage loans and leases grow more than 2% from Q2 to Q3 2026.
Worry ifAverage loans and leases grow less than 1% from Q2 to Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A strong net interest margin is key for making money in banking. It shows good interest rate management.
Supportive ifQ3 net interest margin stays above 4.20%.
Worry ifQ3 net interest margin drops below 4.10%.
Why it matters: More noninterest income shows different ways to make money. This can improve financial stability.
Supportive ifQ3 noninterest income grows more than 5% compared to Q2 2026.
Worry ifQ3 noninterest income growth is less than 3% compared to Q2 2026.