1st Source Corp. (SRCE)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$89.21+1.41%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SRCE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -5.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -5.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The two one-year growth estimates are about the same.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SRCE — earnings in line
Dated 2026-04-23
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 23, 2026 , 1st Source Corporation issued a press release that announced its first quarter earnings for 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein.
Why it matters: Q3 deposits rose just 0.27% year over year, while year-to-date deposits fell 0.19%. More declines could raise pressure to find funding.
Worry ifNext quarter’s average deposits fall year over year, after Q3 growth of 0.27%.
Less concerning ifNext quarter’s average deposits rise year over year. Brokered deposits fall from Q3’s $320.56 million.
Why it matters: Margin rose to 4.28% in Q3, helped by loan growth and steady deposit costs. A drop would weaken that support for earnings.
Worry ifNext quarter’s net interest margin falls below 4.28%.
Less concerning ifNext quarter’s net interest margin stays at or above 4.28%.
Why it matters: Q3 charge-offs were low and the allowance fell to 2.28% of loans. A sharp rise could point to weaker loan performance.
Worry ifNext quarter’s net charge-offs exceed $0.33 million and the allowance rate rises above 2.28%.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs stay at or below $0.33 million and the allowance rate stays at or below 2.28%.
Why it matters: The new platform routes payments across several networks. More client use would show that the launch is gaining traction.
Supportive ifSRCE reports that Payments Hub use or payment volume rose from its Q3 launch, with a number or client count.
Worry ifSRCE reports no measurable client use, or says the launch was delayed or scaled back.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$68 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $155 loss on $10,000 · 1.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $762 loss on $10,000 · 7.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Average loans and leases grew 3.42% year over year in Q3. A stall would weaken a key source of income growth.
Worry ifNext quarter’s average loans and leases are flat or lower year over year.
Less concerning ifNext quarter’s average loans and leases grow year over year, matching or beating Q3’s 3.42% pace.
Why it matters: The Financials sector is still growing, but its trend is easing. Faster deposit growth could show SRCE is keeping up as the sector slows.
Watch forAverage deposits grow more than 0.27% year over year in the next reported quarter.
Also watch forAverage deposits fall year over year in the next reported quarter.