Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Surf Air Mobility Inc (SRFM)
NYSEIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.74-0.28%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SRFM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA loss narrows to $40M-$50M in 2026 | A primary condition in Surf Air Mobility Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Adjusted EBITDA loss between -$50 million and -$40 million. | Broken | Losses exceed $50 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This investment represents a turnaround situation. SRFM is currently navigating a tough environment with high risk and volatile management, making the long-term thesis uncertain.
The market appears to have priced in a low expectations gap, suggesting that investors may not expect significant improvement in performance. SRFM is seen as cheap compared to its peers, but the fundamentals indicate a need for caution.
Management has set ambitious revenue growth targets, and there has been some progress in reducing adjusted EBITDA losses. However, the recent financial performance has been weak, and the company has a history of earnings misses, which adds to the uncertainty.
The future performance of SRFM will depend on its ability to meet growth targets and improve financial metrics. Additionally, the performance of key sector peers like DAL, UAL, and RYAAY will be critical, as their results could impact SRFM's momentum.
In the next 1 to 3 years, SRFM's outlook is clouded by high risk and recent weaknesses, making it a situation to monitor closely. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Surf Air Mobility Inc's published investment case. The stated target is No new unregistered equity sales or major debt issuance in next 12 months. |
| Under Pressure |
| Company issues new dilutive equity or large debt in next 12 months |
$21.6M new debt vs no major issuance target 8-K filed Aug 11, 2026 confirms $21.6M secured debt issuance and exchange of $74M convertible notes. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows 20% to 30% in 2026 | A primary condition in Surf Air Mobility Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= $128 million revenue in 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $105 million in FY26 | Revenue: $29.509M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $128 million revenue in 2026. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 202629,509,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.44 → $-0.47 · observed estimates
$0.16B → $0.16B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.44 | $163,519,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.44 | $163,519,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.44 | $163,519,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.44 | $163,519,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.44 | $163,519,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.44 | $163,519,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.44 | $163,519,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.44 | $163,519,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.44 | $163,519,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.44 | $163,519,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.44 | $163,519,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.44 | $163,519,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.44 | $163,519,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.44 | $163,519,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.44 | $163,519,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.44 | $163,519,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.44 | $163,519,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.44 | $163,519,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.44 | $163,519,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.44 | $163,519,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.44 | $163,519,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.44 | $163,519,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.44 | $163,519,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.44 | $163,519,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.44 | $163,519,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.47 | $163,646,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.47 | $163,646,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.47 | $163,646,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.47 | $163,646,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.47 | $163,646,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.47 | $163,646,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.47 | $163,646,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.47 | $163,646,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.47 | $163,646,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.47 | $163,646,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.47 | $163,646,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.47 | $163,646,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.47 | $163,646,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.47 | $163,646,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.47 | $163,646,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.47 | $163,646,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.47 | $163,646,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.47 | $163,646,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.47 | $163,646,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.47 | $163,646,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.47 | $163,646,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.47 | $163,646,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.47 | $163,646,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.47 | $163,646,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.47 | $163,646,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.47 | $163,646,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.47 | $163,646,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.47 | $163,646,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.47 | $163,646,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.47 | $163,646,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.47 | $163,646,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.47 | $163,646,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.47 | $163,646,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.47 | $163,646,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.47 | $163,646,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.47 | $163,646,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.47 | $163,646,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.47 | $163,646,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.47 | $163,646,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.47 | $163,646,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.47 | $163,646,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.47 | $163,646,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.47 | $163,646,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.47 | $163,646,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.47 | $163,646,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.47 | $163,646,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.47 | $163,646,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.47 | $163,646,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.47 | $163,646,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.47 | $163,646,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.47 | $163,646,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.47 | $163,646,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.47 | $163,646,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.47 | $163,646,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.47 | $163,646,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.47 | $163,646,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.47 | $163,646,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.47 | $163,646,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.47 | $163,646,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.47 | $163,646,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.47 | $163,646,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.47 | $163,646,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.47 | $163,646,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.47 | $163,646,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.47 | $163,646,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.47 | $163,646,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.47 | $163,646,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.47 | $163,646,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.47 | $163,646,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.47 | $163,646,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.47 | $163,646,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.47 | $163,646,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.47 | $163,646,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.47 | $163,646,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.47 | $163,646,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.47 | $163,646,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.47 | $163,646,440 | 4 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.