Surf Air Mobility Inc (SRFM)
NYSEIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.74-0.28%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SRFM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -58.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 40.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 98.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and its industry peers have been missing lately. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers
SRFM — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-10
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On August 10, 2026, Surf Air Mobility Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K, and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, are furnished herewith and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Secur…
Why it matters: The company reported a $10.5 million loss in Q2 and guided to a smaller Q3 loss. A higher loss would break that trend.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA loss is greater than $7 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA loss is $7 million or less.
Why it matters: Management set Q3 revenue guidance at $35.5 million to $37.5 million. A miss would weaken its 2026 growth plan.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue is below $35.5 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 revenue reaches or exceeds $35.5 million.
Why it matters: The company said it expected this loan funding in August. Completion would confirm access to planned cash; a delay could add pressure to its funding needs.
Watch forThe company confirms receipt of the second $14 million loan tranche.
Also watch forThe company reports the second tranche was not funded or the loan terms changed.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$440 on $10,000 · ±4.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $922 loss on $10,000 · 9.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,995 loss on $10,000 · 60.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.