Surf Air Mobility Inc (SRFM)
NYSEIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$0.67-0.49%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SRFM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -63.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 34.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 97.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SRFM — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-10
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On August 10, 2026, Surf Air Mobility Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K, and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, are furnished herewith and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Secur…
Why it matters: Confirming the 20% to 30% revenue growth target shows strong business momentum.
Supportive ifManagement says revenue will be between $128 million and $138 million for 2026.
Worry ifManagement lowers revenue to less than $128 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Successful flights prove the electric aircraft program works. This helps future commercial operations.
Supportive ifTest flights ended with strong operational data shared with the public.
Worry ifTest flights face major operational issues or delays.
Why it matters: Launching these software platforms could improve efficiency and increase revenue. It shows progress with SurfOS.
Supportive ifOperatorOS and OwnerOS launched on time in Q4 2026. This helps improve operations.
Worry ifThere was a delay in launching OperatorOS and OwnerOS. This may slow software development.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector's revenue growth picks up, it may benefit Surf Air's performance.
Supportive ifRevenue growth in the industrial sector exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth is still under 5%. This shows the sector is slowing down.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$290 on $10,000 · ±2.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $906 loss on $10,000 · 9.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,371 loss on $10,000 · 43.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Getting back in line with NYSE rules is important. It helps keep investor trust and access to the market.
Supportive ifStock closes above $1.00 for 30 consecutive trading days.
Worry ifStock remains below $1.00 for 30 consecutive trading days.
Why it matters: Updates on revenue growth targets can signal the company's performance and market conditions. It will reflect on the company's ability to meet its goals.
Watch forCompany raises revenue growth target to above 30% for 2026.
Also watch forCompany lowers revenue growth target to below 20% for 2026.
Why it matters: This growth is key to hitting the 2026 target of 20% to 30%.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth meets or exceeds 20% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 20% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating this goal shows strong growth in the private charter business.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported at or above $35.5 million.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $35.5 million.
Why it matters: A smaller loss means better efficiency. It shows progress toward making money.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA loss reported at $7 million or less.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA loss was worse than $7 million.
Why it matters: Getting back in line with the NYSE is key for investor trust and market access.
Watch forAverage closing share price was over $1.00 for 30 straight trading days.
Also watch forAverage closing share price stayed below $1.00 for 30 straight trading days.