Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Stoneridge Inc (SRI)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.78-16.58%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SRI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted operating margin near break-even to 0.5% | Profit margin should reach near break-even to 0.5%. | Improving | Margin falls below 0% | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative turnaround, not a steady compounder. The thesis is on watch: recent performance remains well below its industry cohort, though it has not freshly broken.
The evidence labels SRI cheap versus peers, but the valuation model has low confidence. The expectations gap is negative, so expectations appear demanding relative to the evidence, while the priced-in assessment is marked justified and fragility is low.
Near term, the risk of another earnings miss is elevated, following consecutive misses across recent quarters. For 2026, revenue rose from $160.8 million in Q1 to $181.4 million in Q2, and adjusted operating margin improved from negative 5.6% to negative 0.7%, supporting management’s reaffirmed full-year goals. MirrorEye revenue also reached about $37 million in Q2, up 39% year over year.
The multi-year thesis hinges on whether SRI can meet its 2026 revenue and margin goals while sustaining MirrorEye growth. A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful setback. Sector earnings and guidance from GPC, BWA, and APTV may also affect the near-term backdrop for SRI.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SRI’s thesis depends on continued execution and fewer earnings disappointments; current progress is encouraging, but the evidence still points to high risk and weak recent performance. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A new CFO may improve execution. |
| Improving |
| No improvement or worsening execution under new CFO |
Q3 earnings beat vs Q2 miss New CFO appointed June 2026; Q2 miss in Aug 2026; Q3 beat in Nov 2026; key hires in Sept/Oct 2026. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Full-year 2026 revenue near $670 million | A primary condition in Stoneridge Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= $645 million and <= $670 million. | Intact | Full-year revenue falls below $645 million | Revenue: $155.802M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $645 million and <= $670 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026155,802,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.23 → $-0.18 · observed estimates
$0.68B → $0.72B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.23 | $680,126,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.23 | $680,126,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.23 | $680,126,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.23 | $680,126,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.23 | $680,126,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.23 | $680,126,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.23 | $680,126,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.23 | $680,126,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.23 | $680,126,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.23 | $680,126,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.23 | $680,126,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.23 | $680,126,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.23 | $680,126,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.23 | $680,126,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.23 | $680,126,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.23 | $680,126,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.23 | $680,126,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.23 | $680,126,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.23 | $680,126,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.23 | $680,126,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.23 | $680,126,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.23 | $680,126,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.23 | $680,126,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.23 | $680,126,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.23 | $680,126,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.23 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.23 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.18 | $715,484,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.